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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aade9e |
Likelihood of concurrent climate extremes and variations over China | |
Zhou, Ping1; Liu, Zhiyong2,3 | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:9 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Extreme climate events such as droughts and heat waves exert strong impacts on ecosystems and human well-being. Estimations of the risks of climate extremes typically focus on one variable in isolation. In this study, we present a method to examine the likelihood of concurrent extreme temperature and precipitation modes at the interannual scale, including compound cool/dry and cool/wet events during the cold season as well as compound hot/dry and hot/wet events during the warm season. A comparison of changes in the likelihood of such joint climate extremes was then conducted between the first (1961-1987) and second (1988-2014) halves of the full observed records. Our findings indicate a decrease in the occurrence probability for most concurrent modes over much of China, despite positive shifts found over southwestern and northeastern parts of China for the compound hot/dry events in the warm season. We further examined changes in likelihood related to these four compound climate extremes between the historical observed period (1961-2014) and the future period (2021-2080) based on climate model simulations with the RCP8.5 scenario. Our results show widespread increases in the occurrence probability for wintertime cool/dry and summertime hot/dry and hot/wet events over most parts of China but with different magnitudes, while much of China may experience declining likelihood of the wintertime cool/wet extremes in the future. |
英文关键词 | compound events climate extremes joint probability climate change likelihood |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000445122600003 |
WOS关键词 | TEMPERATURE ; PRECIPITATION ; DROUGHT ; FRAMEWORK ; EVENTS ; TRENDS ; VARIABILITY ; PREDICTION ; IMPACTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/14913 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Guangzhou Inst Geog, Key Lab Guangdong Utilizat Remote Sensing & Geog, Guangzhou 510070, Guangdong, Peoples R China; 2.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Civil Engn, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China; 3.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Guangdong Engn Technol Res Ctr Water Secur Regula, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhou, Ping,Liu, Zhiyong. Likelihood of concurrent climate extremes and variations over China[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(9). |
APA | Zhou, Ping,&Liu, Zhiyong.(2018).Likelihood of concurrent climate extremes and variations over China.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(9). |
MLA | Zhou, Ping,et al."Likelihood of concurrent climate extremes and variations over China".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.9(2018). |
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