GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aaf07f
Climate shocks, food price stability and international trade: evidence from 76 maize markets in 27 net-importing countries
Chen, Bowen; Villoria, Nelson B.
2019
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2019
卷号14期号:1
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Do food imports increase the variability of domestic food prices? The answer to this question depends on whether foreign production is more volatile than domestic production. If imports are likely to destabilize domestic prices, storing crops for future consumption may prove an appealing strategy to cope with the adverse supply effects of a more unstable climate. Unfortunately, public storage has proven to be unsustainable due to the high costs of carrying crop inventories over time and the inability of policy planners to correctly forecast changes in domestic supply. Therefore, understanding the roles of imports and stocks on domestic food price instability is important as domestic shortfalls in food production are likely to become more frequent as the world's climate becomes warmer. Using maize prices observed in 76 maize markets of 27 maize net importers across Africa, Asia and Latin America during 2000-2015, we find that, on average, a 1% increase in the ratio of imports to total consumption is correlated with a 0.29% reduction of the intra-annual coefficient of variation of maize prices; likewise a 1% increase in the amount of maize available in stocks at the beginning of the season is correlated with a 0.22% reduction in the said coefficient. We also find that climate-induced supply shocks toward mid-century may increase maize price variability in the focus countries by around 10%; these increases could be offset with similar increases in the ratio of imports to total consumption or in the stock-to-use ratio at the beginning of the crop marketing year. The fact that both imports and stocks help to stabilize domestic prices suggests that their uses should hinge on a careful cost-benefit analysis, including the risk of facing world production more variable than domestic production and the costs of carrying maize inventories over time.


英文关键词food imports food price stability climate change maize markets price volatility
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000455846100003
WOS关键词RISKS ; YIELD ; UNCERTAINTY ; VOLATILITY ; IMPACTS ; AFRICA
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/14943
专题气候变化
作者单位Kansas State Univ, Dept Agr Econ, Manhattan, KS 66506 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Chen, Bowen,Villoria, Nelson B.. Climate shocks, food price stability and international trade: evidence from 76 maize markets in 27 net-importing countries[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(1).
APA Chen, Bowen,&Villoria, Nelson B..(2019).Climate shocks, food price stability and international trade: evidence from 76 maize markets in 27 net-importing countries.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(1).
MLA Chen, Bowen,et al."Climate shocks, food price stability and international trade: evidence from 76 maize markets in 27 net-importing countries".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.1(2019).
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