GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aa8e2c
Climate extremes in Europe at 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming
King, Andrew D.1; Karoly, David J.1,2
2017-11-01
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2017
卷号12期号:11
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia; England
英文摘要

There is an international effort to attempt to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, however, there is a lack of quantitative analysis on the benefits of holding global warming to such a level. In this study, coupled climate model simulations are used to form large ensembles of simulated years at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of global warming. These ensembles are used to assess projected changes in the frequency and magnitude of European climate extremes at these warming levels. For example, we find that events similar to the European record hot summer of 2003, which caused tens of thousands of excess deaths, would be very likely at least 24% less frequent in a world at 1.5 degrees C global warming compared to 2 degrees C global warming. Under 2 degrees C of global warming, we could expect such extreme summer temperatures in the historical record to become commonplace, occurring in at least one-in-every-two years. We find that there are very clear benefits to limiting global warming for the European continent, including fewer and less intense heat and rainfall extremes when compared with higher levels of global warming.


英文关键词Paris agreement CMIP5 regional climate change heavy rainfall extreme temperatures
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000415209900002
WOS关键词DEGREES-C ; IMPACTS ; ENGLAND ; CMIP5 ; TEMPERATURES ; ATTRIBUTION ; INDEXES ; SUMMER ; WINTER ; WALES
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/14966
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Melbourne, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sch Earth Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia;
2.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford Martin Sch, Oxford, England
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
King, Andrew D.,Karoly, David J.. Climate extremes in Europe at 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(11).
APA King, Andrew D.,&Karoly, David J..(2017).Climate extremes in Europe at 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(11).
MLA King, Andrew D.,et al."Climate extremes in Europe at 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.11(2017).
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