Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 |
Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment | |
Matthews, T.1; Murphy, C.2; McCarthy, G.3; Broderick, C.2; Wilby, R. L.4 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:1 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Ireland |
英文摘要 | 'Super' Storm Desmond broke meteorological and hydrological records during a record warm year in the British-Irish Isles (BI). The severity of the storm may be a harbinger of expected changes to regional hydroclimate as global temperatures continue to rise. Here, we adopt a process-based approach to investigate the potency of Desmond, and explore the extent to which climate change may have been a contributory factor. Through an Eulerian assessment of water vapour flux we determine that Desmond was accompanied by an atmospheric river (AR) of severity unprecedented since at least 1979, on account of both high atmospheric humidity and high wind speeds. Lagrangian air-parcel tracking and moisture attribution techniques show that long-term warming of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures has significantly increased the chance of such high humidity in ARs in the vicinity of the BI. We conclude that, given exactly the same dynamical conditions associated with Desmond, the likelihood of such an intense AR has already increased by 25% due to long-term climate change. However, our analysis represents a first-order assessment, and further research is needed into the controls influencing AR dynamics. |
英文关键词 | atmospheric river climate change attribution extratopical cyclones North Atlantic warming |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423175500003 |
WOS关键词 | ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS ; PRECIPITATION ; MOISTURE ; OCEAN ; UK ; TEMPERATURE ; EUROPE ; WINTER |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15081 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Liverpool John Moores Univ, Sch Nat Sci & Psychol, Liverpool L3 3AF, Merseyside, England; 2.Maynooth Univ, Dept Geog, Irish Climate Anal & Res Units, Maynooth, Kildare, Ireland; 3.Natl Oceanog Ctr, Southampton SO14 3ZH, Hants, England; 4.Univ Loughborough, Dept Geog, Loughborough LE11 3TU, Leics, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Matthews, T.,Murphy, C.,McCarthy, G.,et al. Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(1). |
APA | Matthews, T.,Murphy, C.,McCarthy, G.,Broderick, C.,&Wilby, R. L..(2018).Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(1). |
MLA | Matthews, T.,et al."Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.1(2018). |
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