Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.09.015 |
Precipitation intensity-duration-frequency curves for central Belgium with an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX simulations, and associated uncertainties | |
Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa1; Tabari, Hossein1; Willems, Patrick1,2 | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 200页码:1-12 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Belgium |
英文摘要 | An ensemble of 88 regional climate model (RCM) simulations at 0.11 degrees and 0.44 degrees spatial resolutions from the EURO-CORDEX project is analyzed for central Belgium to investigate the projected impact of climate change on precipitation intensity duration frequency (IDF) relationships and extreme precipitation quantiles typically used in water engineering designs. The rate of uncertainty arising from the choice of RCM, driving GCM, and radiative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5) is quantified using a variance decomposition technique after reconstruction of missing data in GCM x RCM combinations. A comparative analysis between the historical simulations of the EURO-CORDEX 0.11 degrees and 0.44 degrees RCMs shows higher precipitation intensities by the finer resolution runs, leading to a larger overestimation of the observations-based IDFs by the 0.11 degrees runs. The results reveal that making a temporal stationarity assumption for the climate system may lead to underestimation of precipitation quantiles up to 70% by the end of this century. This projected increase is generally larger for the 0.11 degrees RCMs compared with the 0.44 degrees RCMs. The relative changes in extreme precipitation do depend on return period and duration, indicating an amplification for larger return periods and for smaller durations. The variance decomposition approach generally identifies RCM as the most dominant component of uncertainty in changes of more extreme precipitation (return period of 10 years) for both 0.11 degrees and 0.44 degrees resolutions, followed by GCM and RCP scenario. The uncertainties associated with cross-contributions of RCMs, GCMs, and RCPs play a non-negligible role in the associated uncertainties of the changes. |
英文关键词 | Extreme precipitation Future IDF curves Climate model resolution Quantile perturbation downscaling Variance decomposition Uncertainty analysis |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000416394400001 |
WOS关键词 | REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS ; STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING METHODS ; EXTREME RAINFALL ; PERFORMANCE ; IMPACTS ; PROJECTIONS ; MANAGEMENT ; SCENARIOS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15158 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Katholieke Univ Leuven, Dept Civil Engn, Hydraul Div, Kasteekpk Arenberg 40, BE-3001 Leuven, Belgium; 2.Vrije Univ Brussel, Dept Hydrol & Hydraul Engn, Brussels, Belgium |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa,Tabari, Hossein,Willems, Patrick. Precipitation intensity-duration-frequency curves for central Belgium with an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX simulations, and associated uncertainties[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2018,200:1-12. |
APA | Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa,Tabari, Hossein,&Willems, Patrick.(2018).Precipitation intensity-duration-frequency curves for central Belgium with an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX simulations, and associated uncertainties.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,200,1-12. |
MLA | Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa,et al."Precipitation intensity-duration-frequency curves for central Belgium with an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX simulations, and associated uncertainties".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 200(2018):1-12. |
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