Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.10.001 |
A Fuzzy Stochastic Model for Carbon Price Prediction Under the Effect of Demand-related Policy in China's Carbon Market | |
Song, Yazhi1; Liu, Tiansen2,3; Liang, Dapeng2; Li, Yin4,5; Song, Xiaoqiu6 | |
2019-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
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ISSN | 0921-8009 |
EISSN | 1873-6106 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 157页码:253-265 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; England; Scotland |
英文摘要 | The establishment of China's carbon market has an obvious policy-oriented feature, and the carbon price is easily affected by demand-related policies within a compliance period. As prior models cannot help with clear simulation of the volatility of carbon price in China, this paper develops a fuzzy stochastic model to predict such price under the effect of demand-related policy. First, we quantify corporate final profit obtained from carbon trading based on different free allowance policies to measure the actual allowance demand in the carbon market. Second, based on such demand, we add the fuzzy number in each parameter of a stochastic differential equation and then develop a fuzzy stochastic model that can help to analyse the effect of demand-related policy on carbon price in the immature carbon market. Third, by analysing the demand-related policy formulated in the second developing - phase of the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange (from Nov. 17 in 2016) through our model, we predict the price trend after each demand-related policy publication. Experimental results reveal the accurate fitting effect of the developed model that can help to estimate the supply-and-demand in the carbon market and evaluate the effectiveness of current carbon trading policy as well. Further, our model can provide a robust theoretical implication for both corporate carbon trading strategies and governmental regulations on carbon demand-related policy. |
英文关键词 | China' s carbon market Demand-related policy Carbon price prediction Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange Fuzzy stochastic model |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000456899800024 |
WOS关键词 | EMISSION TRADING SCHEME ; ETS-EVIDENCE ; PERFORMANCE ; PERSPECTIVE ; INVESTMENT ; LESSONS |
WOS类目 | Ecology ; Economics ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Business & Economics |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15696 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Jiangsu Normal Univ, Sch Business, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.Harbin Inst Technol, Sch Management, Harbin 150001, Heilongjiang, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Birmingham, Business Sch, Birmingham B15 2TY, W Midlands, England; 4.Northeast Normal Univ, Sch Math & Stat, MOE, Key Lab Appl Stat, Changchun 130024, Peoples R China; 5.Univ Strathclyde, Dept Math & Stat, Glasgow G1 1XH, Lanark, Scotland; 6.China Univ Min & Technol, Dept Math, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Song, Yazhi,Liu, Tiansen,Liang, Dapeng,et al. A Fuzzy Stochastic Model for Carbon Price Prediction Under the Effect of Demand-related Policy in China's Carbon Market[J]. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,2019,157:253-265. |
APA | Song, Yazhi,Liu, Tiansen,Liang, Dapeng,Li, Yin,&Song, Xiaoqiu.(2019).A Fuzzy Stochastic Model for Carbon Price Prediction Under the Effect of Demand-related Policy in China's Carbon Market.ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,157,253-265. |
MLA | Song, Yazhi,et al."A Fuzzy Stochastic Model for Carbon Price Prediction Under the Effect of Demand-related Policy in China's Carbon Market".ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 157(2019):253-265. |
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