Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.03.002 |
Picking Winners: Modelling the Costs of Technology-specific Climate Policy in the US Passenger Vehicle Sector | |
Fox, Jacob; Axsen, Jonn; Jaccard, Mark | |
2017-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
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ISSN | 0921-8009 |
EISSN | 1873-6106 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 137 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | Researchers debate the cost-effectiveness of technology-specific versus technology-neutral climate policies, but few quantify the differences. Using the case of low-carbon vehicle technologies in the US passenger vehicle sector (ethanol, plug-in electric and hydrogen), we develop a technology adoption simulation model that represents increasing returns to adoption in both financial costs and consumer preferences, representing uncertainty through Monte Carlo analysis. We compare the policy costs ($/tonne CO2 out to 2050) of: i) a technology-neutral carbon tax, ii) a somewhat neutral vehicle standard requiring low carbon vehicle sales, but allowing competition among technologies, and iii) technology-specific vehicle standards requiring sales of just one technology. On average across simulations, the carbon tax is twice as cost-effective as the best vehicle standard, in part because the tax more substantially affects vehicle use rates. Among the vehicle standards, a technology-specific standard that selects the right "winner" (plug-in electric vehicles) is more cost-effective than the neutral standard, as it more quickly stimulates technology improvement. However, there is risk in a technology-specific approach; mistakenly forcing a "loser" technology (hydrogen) results in policy costs that are 2 to 5 times higher than other policies. Results can help policymakers trade-off the costs and risks of different climate policy options. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
英文关键词 | Climate Policy Technology-neutral Technology-specific Low-carbon Vehicles Technology Adoption Model Simulation Model |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000400532400014 |
WOS关键词 | COMBINING TOP-DOWN ; ENVIRONMENTAL-POLICY ; INCOME ELASTICITIES ; DISCRETE-CHOICE ; LOCK-IN ; ENERGY ; PREFERENCES ; ELECTRICITY ; FAILURES ; SUPPORT |
WOS类目 | Ecology ; Economics ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Business & Economics |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15717 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | Simon Fraser Univ, Sch Resource & Environm Management, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fox, Jacob,Axsen, Jonn,Jaccard, Mark. Picking Winners: Modelling the Costs of Technology-specific Climate Policy in the US Passenger Vehicle Sector[J]. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,2017,137. |
APA | Fox, Jacob,Axsen, Jonn,&Jaccard, Mark.(2017).Picking Winners: Modelling the Costs of Technology-specific Climate Policy in the US Passenger Vehicle Sector.ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,137. |
MLA | Fox, Jacob,et al."Picking Winners: Modelling the Costs of Technology-specific Climate Policy in the US Passenger Vehicle Sector".ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 137(2017). |
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