Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.04.004 |
The Energy-emissions Trap | |
Sers, Martin R.; Victor, Peter A. | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS |
ISSN | 0921-8009 |
EISSN | 1873-6106 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 151页码:10-21 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | The requirement to reduce emissions to avoid potentially dangerous climate change implies a dilemma for societies heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Reducing emissions will necessitate the transition from relatively high EROI dispatchable fossil fuels to a combination of relatively low EROI intermittent renewables and geographically limited non-intermittent renewables. As renewable capacity requires energy to construct there is an initial fossil fuel cost to creating new renewable capacity. An insufficiently rapid transition to renewables will imply a scenario in which it is impossible to avoid either transgressing emissions ceilings or facing energy shortages; we term this the energy-emissions trap. In this paper, we construct a mathematical model, termed EETRAP, that builds the EROI metric and the energy characteristics of renewable generation into a macroeconomic framework. EETRAP is used for simulation analysis to test how differing assumptions about the EROI of intermittent renewables will affect the time-path of renewable investment necessary to escape the energyemissions trap. For all runs of the model, the renewable investment rate by 2050 is significantly larger than the current energy investment rate. For declining intermittent renewable EROI, the renewable investment rate crowds out other forms of investment leading to a declining economic growth rate. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000437078900002 |
WOS关键词 | LOW-COST ; RENEWABLE ENERGY ; SOLAR ; WIND ; EROI ; ELECTRICITY ; SOCIETY ; WATER ; POWER |
WOS类目 | Ecology ; Economics ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Business & Economics |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15799 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | York Univ, Fac Environm Studies, N York, ON, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sers, Martin R.,Victor, Peter A.. The Energy-emissions Trap[J]. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,2018,151:10-21. |
APA | Sers, Martin R.,&Victor, Peter A..(2018).The Energy-emissions Trap.ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,151,10-21. |
MLA | Sers, Martin R.,et al."The Energy-emissions Trap".ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 151(2018):10-21. |
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