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DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.07.024 |
Climatic Cost-benefit Analysis Under Uncertainty and Learning on Climate Sensitivity and Damages | |
Ekholm, Tommi | |
2018-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
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ISSN | 0921-8009 |
EISSN | 1873-6106 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 154页码:99-106 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Finland |
英文摘要 | Cost-benefit analyses on climate change have drawn considerable critique, primarily due to contestable choices of discounting and high uncertainties in climate sensitivity and climatic damages. Consequentially, it is argued that cost-benefit analysis can suggest mitigation rates that are nearly arbitrary. This article investigates how firm conclusions can be made from cost-benefit analysis if the main uncertainties are considered endogenously in the analysis and an extensive sensitivity analysis is carried out regarding the contestable assumptions. The SCORE model is used to calculate optimal emission pathways and carbon prices that hedge against climate sensitivity and damage risks using a wide range of plausible parametrization. In a vast majority of cases the near-term emissions fall between 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C emission pathways, giving thus support for the Paris Agreement targets. Sequential decision-making allows hedging against uncertainties and readjusting mitigation efforts over time to reflect new information, leading to diverse stabilization temperatures in the long-term. Assumptions on mitigation costs, climate sensitivity and damages affect optimal near-term mitigation and long-term stabilization temperature more strongly than the discount rate choice. The consideration of parametric uncertainty on climate sensitivity and damages adds a substantial risk component to carbon pricing, while learning can induce significant price volatility in a decadal timescale. |
英文关键词 | Climate change Cost-benefit analysis Social cost of carbon Integrated assessment models Uncertainty |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000446282700010 |
WOS关键词 | SOCIAL COST ; ECONOMICS ; TEMPERATURE ; EMISSIONS ; VALUATION ; POLICY ; RISK |
WOS类目 | Ecology ; Economics ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Business & Economics |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15934 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | Aalto Univ, Otakaari 1, Espoo 02150, Finland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ekholm, Tommi. Climatic Cost-benefit Analysis Under Uncertainty and Learning on Climate Sensitivity and Damages[J]. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,2018,154:99-106. |
APA | Ekholm, Tommi.(2018).Climatic Cost-benefit Analysis Under Uncertainty and Learning on Climate Sensitivity and Damages.ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,154,99-106. |
MLA | Ekholm, Tommi."Climatic Cost-benefit Analysis Under Uncertainty and Learning on Climate Sensitivity and Damages".ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 154(2018):99-106. |
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