Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.03.004 |
Expert Elicitation, Uncertainty, and the Value of Information in Controlling. Invasive Species | |
Johnson, Fred A.1; Smith, Brian J.2; Bonneau, Mathieu2; Martin, Julien1; Romagosa, Christina2; Mazzotti, Frank3; Waddle, Hardin4; Reed, Robert N.5; Eckles, Jennifer Kettevrlin3; Vitt, Laurie J.6,7 | |
2017-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
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ISSN | 0921-8009 |
EISSN | 1873-6106 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 137 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | We illustrate the utility of expert elicitation, explicit recognition of uncertainty, and the value of information for directing management and research efforts for invasive species, using tegu lizards (Salvator merianae) in southern Florida as a case study. We posited a post-birth pulse, matrix model in which four age classes of tegus are recognized: hatchlings, 1 year-old, 2 year-olds, and 3 + year-olds. This matrix model was parameterized using a 3 point process to elicit estimates of tegu demographic rates in southern Florida from 10 herpetology experts. We fit statistical distributions for each parameter and for each expert, then drew and pooled a large number of replicate samples from these to form a distribution for each demographic parameter. Using these distributions, as well as the observed correlations among elicited values, we generated a large sample of matrix population models to infer how the tegu population would respond to control efforts. We used the concepts of Pareto efficiency and stochastic dominance to conclude that targeting older age classes at relatively high rates appears to have the best chance of minimizing tegu abundance and control costs. We conclude that expert opinion combined with an explicit consideration of uncertainty can be valuable in conducting an initial assessment of what control strategy, effort, and monetary resources are needed to reduce and eventually eliminate the invader. Scientists, in turn, can use the value of information to focus research in a way that not only increases the efficacy of control, but minimizes costs as well. Published by Elsevier B.V. |
英文关键词 | Expert elicitation Invasive species Matrix model Stochastic dominance Uncertainty Value of information |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000400532400009 |
WOS关键词 | DECISION-MAKING ; TUPINAMBIS-MERIANAE ; ADAPTIVE-MANAGEMENT ; FLORIDA ; AGGREGATION ; POPULATIONS ; CONFIDENCE ; JUDGMENTS ; MODELS |
WOS类目 | Ecology ; Economics ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Business & Economics |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16068 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.US Geol Survey, Wetland & Aquat Res Ctr, 7920 NW 71 St, Gainesville, FL 32653 USA; 2.Univ Florida, Dept Wildlife Ecol & Conservat, POB 110430, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA; 3.Univ Florida, Dept Wildlife Ecol & Conservat, 3205 Coll Ave, Ft Lauderdale, FL 33314 USA; 4.US Geol Survey, Wetland & Aquat Res Ctr, 700 Cajundome Blvd, Lafayette, LA 70506 USA; 5.US Geol Survey, Ft Collins Sci Ctr, 2150 Ctr Ave,Bldg C, Ft Collins, CO 80526 USA; 6.Univ Oklahoma, Sam Noble Museum, Norman, OK 73072 USA; 7.Univ Oklahoma, Dept Biol, Norman, OK 73072 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Johnson, Fred A.,Smith, Brian J.,Bonneau, Mathieu,et al. Expert Elicitation, Uncertainty, and the Value of Information in Controlling. Invasive Species[J]. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,2017,137. |
APA | Johnson, Fred A..,Smith, Brian J..,Bonneau, Mathieu.,Martin, Julien.,Romagosa, Christina.,...&Vitt, Laurie J..(2017).Expert Elicitation, Uncertainty, and the Value of Information in Controlling. Invasive Species.ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,137. |
MLA | Johnson, Fred A.,et al."Expert Elicitation, Uncertainty, and the Value of Information in Controlling. Invasive Species".ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 137(2017). |
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