Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-17-2865-2017 |
Improving volcanic ash predictions with the HYSPLIT dispersion model by assimilating MODIS satellite retrievals | |
Chai, Tianfeng1,2; Crawford, Alice1,2; Stunder, Barbara1; Pavolonis, Michael J.3; Draxler, Roland1; Stein, Ariel1 | |
2017-02-24 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
![]() |
ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 17期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Currently, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) runs the HYSPLIT dispersion model with a unit mass release rate to predict the transport and dispersion of volcanic ash. The model predictions provide information for the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) to issue advisories to meteorological watch offices, area control centers, flight information centers, and others. This research aims to provide quantitative forecasts of ash distributions generated by objectively and optimally estimating the volcanic ash source strengths, vertical distribution, and temporal variations using an observation-modeling inversion technique. In this top-down approach, a cost functional is defined to quantify the differences between the model predictions and the satellite measurements of column-integrated ash concentrations weighted by the model and observation uncertainties. Minimizing this cost functional by adjusting the sources provides the volcanic ash emission estimates. As an example, MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite retrievals of the 2008 Kasatochi volcanic ash clouds are used to test the HYSPLIT volcanic ash inverse system. Because the satellite retrievals include the ash cloud top height but not the bottom height, there are different model diagnostic choices for comparing the model results with the observed mass loadings. Three options are presented and tested. Although the emission estimates vary significantly with different options, the subsequent model predictions with the different release estimates all show decent skill when evaluated against the unassimilated satellite observations at later times. Among the three options, integrating over three model layers yields slightly better results than integrating from the surface up to the observed volcanic ash cloud top or using a single model layer. Inverse tests also show that including the ash-free region to constrain the model is not beneficial for the current case. In addition, extra constraints on the source terms can be given by explicitly enforcing "no-ash" for the atmosphere columns above or below the observed ash cloud top height. However, in this case such extra constraints are not helpful for the inverse modeling. It is also found that simultaneously assimilating observations at different times produces better hindcasts than only assimilating the most recent observations. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000395116400001 |
WOS关键词 | OBJECTSA GENERALIZED FRAMEWORK ; AUTOMATED DETECTION ; SOURCE PARAMETERS ; CLOUD TRANSPORT ; PLUMES ; ERUPTION ; IMPACTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16227 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.NOAA, Air Resources Lab, Ctr Weather & Climate Predict, 5830 Univ Res Court, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 2.Univ Maryland, Cooperat Inst Climate & Satellites, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 3.NOAA, Ctr Satellite Applicat & Res, Madison, WI USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chai, Tianfeng,Crawford, Alice,Stunder, Barbara,et al. Improving volcanic ash predictions with the HYSPLIT dispersion model by assimilating MODIS satellite retrievals[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2017,17(4). |
APA | Chai, Tianfeng,Crawford, Alice,Stunder, Barbara,Pavolonis, Michael J.,Draxler, Roland,&Stein, Ariel.(2017).Improving volcanic ash predictions with the HYSPLIT dispersion model by assimilating MODIS satellite retrievals.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,17(4). |
MLA | Chai, Tianfeng,et al."Improving volcanic ash predictions with the HYSPLIT dispersion model by assimilating MODIS satellite retrievals".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 17.4(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论