Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13982 |
Annual global mean temperature explains reproductive success in a marine vertebrate from 1955 to 2010 | |
Mauck, Robert A.1; Dearborn, Donald C.2; Huntington, Charles E.3 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
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ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:4页码:1599-1613 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The salient feature of anthropogenic climate change over the last century has been the rise in global mean temperature. However, global mean temperature is not used as an explanatory variable in studies of population-level response to climate change, perhaps because the signal-to-noise ratio of this gross measure makes its effect difficult to detect in any but the longest of datasets. Using a population of Leach's storm-petrels breeding in the Bay of Fundy, we tested whether local, regional, or global temperature measures are the best index of reproductive success in the face of climate change in species that travel widely between and within seasons. With a 56-year dataset, we found that annual global mean temperature (AGMT) was the single most important predictor of hatching success, more so than regional sea surface temperatures (breeding season or winter) and local air temperatures at the nesting colony. Storm-petrel reproductive success showed a quadratic response to rising temperatures, in that hatching success increased up to some critical temperature, and then declined when AGMT exceeded that temperature. The year at which AGMT began to consistently exceed that critical temperature was 1988. Importantly, in this population of known-age individuals, the impact of changing climate was greatest on inexperienced breeders: reproductive success of inexperienced birds increased more rapidly as temperatures rose and declined more rapidly after the tipping point than did reproductive success of experienced individuals. The generality of our finding that AGMT is the best predictor of reproductive success in this system may hinge on two things. First, an integrative global measure may be best for species in which individuals move across an enormous spatial range, especially within seasons. Second, the length of our dataset and our capacity to account for individual- and age-based variation in reproductive success increase our ability to detect a noisy signal. |
英文关键词 | age effects air temperature climate change global mean temperature longitudinal study long-term dataset seabirds sea surface temperature storm-petrels |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426504400014 |
WOS关键词 | LEACHS STORM-PETRELS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; INCUBATION TEMPERATURES ; POPULATION ; SEABIRD ; AGE ; PHENOLOGY ; SELECTION ; IMPACTS ; ISLAND |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16641 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Kenyon Coll, Dept Biol, Gambier, OH 43022 USA; 2.Bates Coll, Dept Biol, Lewiston, ME 04240 USA; 3.Bowdoin Coll, Dept Biol, Brunswick, ME 04011 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mauck, Robert A.,Dearborn, Donald C.,Huntington, Charles E.. Annual global mean temperature explains reproductive success in a marine vertebrate from 1955 to 2010[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(4):1599-1613. |
APA | Mauck, Robert A.,Dearborn, Donald C.,&Huntington, Charles E..(2018).Annual global mean temperature explains reproductive success in a marine vertebrate from 1955 to 2010.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(4),1599-1613. |
MLA | Mauck, Robert A.,et al."Annual global mean temperature explains reproductive success in a marine vertebrate from 1955 to 2010".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.4(2018):1599-1613. |
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