Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13440 |
An ecoregion assessment of projected tree species vulnerabilities in western North America through the 21st century | |
Mathys, Amanda S.1; Coops, Nicholas C.1; Waring, Richard H.2 | |
2017-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
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ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 23期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada; USA |
英文摘要 | Forest ecosystems across western North America will likely see shifts in both tree species dominance and composition over the rest of this century in response to climate change. Our objective in this study was to identify which ecological regions might expect the greatest changes to occur. We used the process-based growth model 3-PG, to provide estimates of tree species responses to changes in environmental conditions and to evaluate the extent that species are resilient to shifts in climate over the rest of this century. We assessed the vulnerability of 20 tree species in western North America using the Canadian global circulation model under three different emission scenarios. We provided detailed projections of species shifts by including soil maps that account for the spatial variation in soil water availability and soil fertility as well as by utilizing annual climate projections of monthly changes in air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure deficit and frost at a spatial resolution of one km. Projected suitable areas for tree species were compared to their current ranges based on observations at >40000 field survey plots. Tree species were classified as vulnerable if environmental conditions projected in the future appear outside that of their current distribution 70% of the time. We added a migration constraint that limits species dispersal to <200myr(-1) to provide more realistic projections on species distributions. Based on these combinations of constraints, we predicted the greatest changes in the distribution of dominant tree species to occur within the Northwest Forested Mountains and the highest number of tree species stressed will likely be in the North American Deserts. Projected climatic changes appear especially unfavorable for species in the subalpine zone, where major shifts in composition may lead to the emergence of new forest types. |
英文关键词 | 3-PG model climate change ecoregion species distribution model species vulnerability |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000394343300039 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; HABITAT FRAGMENTATION ; PRODUCTIVITY MODEL ; PACIFIC-NORTHWEST ; CHANGING CLIMATE ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; VEGETATION ; ECOSYSTEM ; MANAGEMENT ; LANDSCAPE |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17027 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ British Columbia, Dept Forest Resource Management, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada; 2.Oregon State Univ, Coll Forestry, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mathys, Amanda S.,Coops, Nicholas C.,Waring, Richard H.. An ecoregion assessment of projected tree species vulnerabilities in western North America through the 21st century[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(2). |
APA | Mathys, Amanda S.,Coops, Nicholas C.,&Waring, Richard H..(2017).An ecoregion assessment of projected tree species vulnerabilities in western North America through the 21st century.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(2). |
MLA | Mathys, Amanda S.,et al."An ecoregion assessment of projected tree species vulnerabilities in western North America through the 21st century".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.2(2017). |
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