Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13475 |
Coarse climate change projections for species living in a fine-scaled world | |
Nadeau, Christopher P.1; Urban, Mark C.1,2; Bridle, Jon R.3 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
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ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 23期号:1页码:43823 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; England |
英文摘要 | Accurately predicting biological impacts of climate change is necessary to guide policy. However, the resolution of climate data could be affecting the accuracy of climate change impact assessments. Here, we review the spatial and temporal resolution of climate data used in impact assessments and demonstrate that these resolutions are often too coarse relative to biologically relevant scales. We then develop a framework that partitions climate into three important components: trend, variance, and autocorrelation. We apply this framework to map different global climate regimes and identify where coarse climate data is most and least likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments. We show that impact assessments for many large mammals and birds use climate data with a spatial resolution similar to the biologically relevant area encompassing population dynamics. Conversely, impact assessments for many small mammals, herpetofauna, and plants use climate data with a spatial resolution that is orders of magnitude larger than the area encompassing population dynamics. Most impact assessments also use climate data with a coarse temporal resolution. We suggest that climate data with a coarse spatial resolution is likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments the most in climates with high spatial trend and variance (e.g., much of western North and South America) and the least in climates with low spatial trend and variance (e.g., the Great Plains of the USA). Climate data with a coarse temporal resolution is likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments the most in the northern half of the northern hemisphere where temporal climatic variance is high. Our framework provides one way to identify where improving the resolution of climate data will have the largest impact on the accuracy of biological predictions under climate change. |
英文关键词 | autocorrelation grid size impact assessment spatial resolution spatial scaling temporal resolution trend variance |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000390218300002 |
WOS关键词 | ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABILITY ; DISPERSAL DISTANCES ; EXTINCTION RISK ; COEXISTENCE ; EVOLUTION ; POPULATIONS ; RESPONSES ; VARIANCE ; IMPACTS ; NOISE |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17030 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Connecticut, Ecol & Evolutionary Biol Dept, 75 North Eagleville Rd, Storrs, CT 06269 USA; 2.Univ Connecticut, Inst Biol Risk, 75 North Eagleville Rd, Storrs, CT 06269 USA; 3.Univ Bristol, Sch Biol Sci, Bristol BS8 1UD, Avon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nadeau, Christopher P.,Urban, Mark C.,Bridle, Jon R.. Coarse climate change projections for species living in a fine-scaled world[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(1):43823. |
APA | Nadeau, Christopher P.,Urban, Mark C.,&Bridle, Jon R..(2017).Coarse climate change projections for species living in a fine-scaled world.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(1),43823. |
MLA | Nadeau, Christopher P.,et al."Coarse climate change projections for species living in a fine-scaled world".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.1(2017):43823. |
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