Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13684 |
Potential for an Arctic-breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification | |
Lameris, Thomas K.1,2; Scholten, Ilse1,3; Bauer, Silke1,4; Cobben, Marleen M. P.1; Ens, Bruno J.5; Nolet, Bart A.1,2 | |
2017-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
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ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 23期号:10 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands; Switzerland |
英文摘要 | Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions. Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset of local spring, consequently reducing individual fitness and potentially even population levels. We used a dynamic state variable model to study whether Arctic long-distance migrants can advance their migratory schedules under climate warming scenarios which include Arctic amplification, and whether such an advancement is constrained by fuel accumulation or the ability to anticipate climatic changes. Our model predicts that barnacle geese Branta leucopsis suffer from considerably reduced reproductive success with increasing Arctic amplification through mistimed arrival, when they cannot anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring from their wintering grounds. When geese are able to anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring, they are predicted to advance their spring arrival under Arctic amplification up to 44 days without any reproductive costs in terms of optimal condition or timing of breeding. Negative effects of mistimed arrival on reproduction are predicted to be somewhat mitigated by increasing summer length under warming in the Arctic, as late arriving geese can still breed successfully. We conclude that adaptation to Arctic amplification may rather be constrained by the (un)predictability of changes in the Arctic spring than by the time available for fuel accumulation. Social migrants like geese tend to have a high behavioural plasticity regarding stopover site choice and migration schedule, giving them the potential to adapt to future climate changes on their flyway. |
英文关键词 | Branta leucopsis climate change dynamic state variable model global warming mistimed arrival |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000410642100009 |
WOS关键词 | GEESE BRANTA-LEUCOPSIS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE LEADS ; BARNACLE GEESE ; REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS ; AVIAN MIGRATION ; SNOW GEESE ; CONSEQUENCES ; MISMATCH ; ARRIVAL ; GROWTH |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17081 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Netherlands Inst Ecol NIOO KNAW, Dept Anim Ecol, Wageningen, Netherlands; 2.Univ Amsterdam, Inst Biodivers & Ecosyst Dynam, Theoret & Computat Ecol, Amsterdam, Netherlands; 3.Univ Utrecht, Dept Anim Ecol, Utrecht, Netherlands; 4.Swiss Ornithol Inst, Dept Bird Migrat, Sempach, Switzerland; 5.Sovon Dutch Ctr Field Ornithol, Den Burg, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lameris, Thomas K.,Scholten, Ilse,Bauer, Silke,et al. Potential for an Arctic-breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(10). |
APA | Lameris, Thomas K.,Scholten, Ilse,Bauer, Silke,Cobben, Marleen M. P.,Ens, Bruno J.,&Nolet, Bart A..(2017).Potential for an Arctic-breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(10). |
MLA | Lameris, Thomas K.,et al."Potential for an Arctic-breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.10(2017). |
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