Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13589 |
Regional climate on the breeding grounds predicts variation in the natal origin of monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico over 38 years | |
Flockhart, D. T. Tyler1; Brower, Lincoln P.2; Ramirez, M. Isabel3; Hobson, Keith A.4,5; Wassenaar, Leonard I.6; Altizer, Sonia7; Norris, D. Ryan1 | |
2017-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 23期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada; USA; Mexico; Austria |
英文摘要 | Addressing population declines of migratory insects requires linking populations across different portions of the annual cycle and understanding the effects of variation in weather and climate on productivity, recruitment, and patterns of long-distance movement. We used stable H and C isotopes and geospatial modeling to estimate the natal origin of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in eastern North America using over 1000 monarchs collected over almost four decades at Mexican overwintering colonies. Multinomial regression was used to ascertain which climate-related factors best-predicted temporal variation in natal origin across six breeding regions. The region producing the largest proportion of overwintering monarchs was the US Midwest (mean annual proportion = 0.38; 95% CI: 0.36-0.41) followed by the north-central (0.17; 0.14-0.18), northeast (0.15; 0.11-0.16), northwest (0.12; 0.12-0.16), southwest (0.11; 0.08-0.12), and southeast (0.08; 0.07-0.11) regions. There was no evidence of directional shifts in the relative contributions of different natal regions over time, which suggests these regions are comprising the same relative proportion of the overwintering population in recent years as in the mid-1970s. Instead, interannual variation in the proportion of monarchs from each region covaried with climate, as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index and regional-specific daily maximum temperature and precipitation, which together likely dictate larval development rates and food plant condition. Our results provide the first robust long-term analysis of predictors of the natal origins of monarchs overwintering in Mexico. Conservation efforts on the breeding grounds focused on the Midwest region will likely have the greatest benefit to eastern North American migratory monarchs, but the population will likely remain sensitive to regional and stochastic weather patterns. |
英文关键词 | Asclepias carbon Danaus plexippus hydrogen migratory connectivity provenance seasonal migration stable isotopes |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000402514900005 |
WOS关键词 | STABLE-ISOTOPES ; NORTH-AMERICA ; DANAUS-PLEXIPPUS ; MIGRATORY BIRDS ; SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; OPTIMAL CONSERVATION ; POPULATION DECLINES ; LEPIDOPTERA ; TEMPERATURE ; ECOLOGY |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17087 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Guelph, Dept Integrat Biol, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada; 2.Sweet Briar Coll, Dept Biol, Sweet Briar, VA 24595 USA; 3.Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Invest Geog Ambiental, Antigua Carretera Patzcuaro 8701, Morelia 58190, Michoacan, Mexico; 4.Environm Canada, Saskatoon, SK S7N 3H5, Canada; 5.Univ Western Ontario, Dept Biol, London, ON N6A 5B7, Canada; 6.IAEA, Dept Nucl Sci & Applicat, A-1400 Vienna, Austria; 7.Univ Georgia, Odum Sch Ecol, Athens, GA 30602 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Flockhart, D. T. Tyler,Brower, Lincoln P.,Ramirez, M. Isabel,et al. Regional climate on the breeding grounds predicts variation in the natal origin of monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico over 38 years[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(7). |
APA | Flockhart, D. T. Tyler.,Brower, Lincoln P..,Ramirez, M. Isabel.,Hobson, Keith A..,Wassenaar, Leonard I..,...&Norris, D. Ryan.(2017).Regional climate on the breeding grounds predicts variation in the natal origin of monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico over 38 years.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(7). |
MLA | Flockhart, D. T. Tyler,et al."Regional climate on the breeding grounds predicts variation in the natal origin of monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico over 38 years".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.7(2017). |
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