GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1111/gcb.14110
Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide
Alexander, Peter1,2; Rabin, Sam3; Anthoni, Peter3; Henry, Roslyn1; Pugh, Thomas A. M.3,4,5; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.1,3; Arneth, Almut3
2018-07-01
发表期刊GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
ISSN1354-1013
EISSN1365-2486
出版年2018
卷号24期号:7页码:2791-2809
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Scotland; Germany; England
英文摘要

Land use contributes to environmental change, but is also influenced by such changes. Climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels' changes alter agricultural crop productivity, plant water requirements and irrigation water availability. The global food system needs to respond and adapt to these changes, for example, by altering agricultural practices, including the crop types or intensity of management, or shifting cultivated areas within and between countries. As impacts and associated adaptation responses are spatially specific, understanding the land use adaptation to environmental changes requires crop productivity representations that capture spatial variations. The impact of variation in management practices, including fertiliser and irrigation rates, also needs to be considered. To date, models of global land use have selected agricultural expansion or intensification levels using relatively aggregate spatial representations, typically at a regional level, that are not able to characterise the details of these spatially differentiated responses. Here, we show results from a novel global modelling approach using more detailed biophysically derived yield responses to inputs with greater spatial specificity than previously possible. The approach couples a dynamic global vegetative model (LPJ-GUESS) with a new land use and food system model (PLUMv2), with results benchmarked against historical land use change from 1970. Land use outcomes to 2100 were explored, suggesting that increased intensity of climate forcing reduces the inputs required for food production, due to the fertilisation and enhanced water use efficiency effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but requiring substantial shifts in the global and local patterns of production. The results suggest that adaptation in the global agriculture and food system has substantial capacity to diminish the negative impacts and gain greater benefits from positive outcomes of climate change. Consequently, agricultural expansion and intensification may be lower than found in previous studies where spatial details and processes consideration were more constrained.


英文关键词climate change adaptation CO2 fertilisation food system land use change land use intensity telecoupling
领域气候变化 ; 资源环境
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000437281500006
WOS关键词GREENHOUSE-GAS MITIGATION ; SPATIALLY EXPLICIT ; ELEVATED CO2 ; VEGETATION DYNAMICS ; YIELD STIMULATION ; FOOD DEMAND ; CROP YIELD ; MODEL ; AGRICULTURE ; IMPACTS
WOS类目Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17176
专题气候变化
资源环境科学
作者单位1.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland;
2.Univ Edinburgh, Global Acad Agr & Food Secur, Royal Dick Sch Vet Studies, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland;
3.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Atmospher Environm Res IMK IFU, Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany;
4.Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham, W Midlands, England;
5.Univ Birmingham, Birmingham Inst Forest Res, Birmingham, W Midlands, England
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Alexander, Peter,Rabin, Sam,Anthoni, Peter,et al. Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(7):2791-2809.
APA Alexander, Peter.,Rabin, Sam.,Anthoni, Peter.,Henry, Roslyn.,Pugh, Thomas A. M..,...&Arneth, Almut.(2018).Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(7),2791-2809.
MLA Alexander, Peter,et al."Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.7(2018):2791-2809.
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