GSTDTAP  > 地球科学
DOI10.5194/acp-17-6547-2017
Glacier evolution in high-mountain Asia under stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection geoengineering
Zhao, Liyun1,2; Yang, Yi1; Cheng, Wei1; Ji, Duoying1,2; Moore, John C.1,2,3,4
2017-06-02
发表期刊ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
ISSN1680-7316
EISSN1680-7324
出版年2017
卷号17期号:11
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China; Finland
英文摘要

Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection may help preserve mountain glaciers by reducing summer temperatures. We examine this hypothesis for the glaciers in high-mountain Asia using a glacier mass balance model driven by climate simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The G3 and G4 schemes specify use of stratospheric sulfate aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario for the 50 years between 2020 and 2069, and for a further 20 years after termination of geoengineering. We estimate and compare glacier volume loss for every glacier in the region using a glacier model based on surface mass balance parameterization under climate projections from three Earth system models under G3, five models under G4, and six models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The ensemble projections suggest that glacier shrinkage over the period 2010-2069 is equivalent to sea-level rise of 9.0 +/- 1.6 mm (G3), 9.8 +/- 4.3 mm (G4), 15.5 +/- 2.3 mm (RCP4.5), and 18.5 +/- 1.7 mm (RCP8.5). Although G3 keeps the average temperature from increasing in the geoengineering period, G3 only slows glacier shrinkage by about 50% relative to losses from RCP8.5. Approximately 72% of glaciated area remains at 2069 under G3, as compared with about 30% for RCP8.5. The widely reported reduction in mean precipitation expected for solar geoengineering is unlikely to be as important as the temperature-driven shift from solid to liquid precipitation for forcing Himalayan glacier change. The termination of geoengineering at 2069 under G3 leads to temperature rise of about 1.3 degrees C over the period 2070-2089 relative to the period 2050-2069 and corresponding increase in annual mean glacier volume loss rate from 0.17 to 1.1% yr(-1), which is higher than the 0.66% yr(-1) under RCP8.5 during 2070-2089.


领域地球科学
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000402664900003
WOS关键词SOLAR-RADIATION MANAGEMENT ; SEA-LEVEL RISE ; CHHOTA SHIGRI GLACIER ; EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; MASS-BALANCE ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; REGIONAL CLIMATE ; WESTERN HIMALAYA ; ENERGY-BALANCE ; ICE-SHEET
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17291
专题地球科学
作者单位1.Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, 19 Xinjiekou Wai St, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China;
2.Joint Ctr Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China;
3.Univ Lapland, Arctic Ctr, POB 122, Rovaniemi 96101, Finland;
4.CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Zhao, Liyun,Yang, Yi,Cheng, Wei,et al. Glacier evolution in high-mountain Asia under stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection geoengineering[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2017,17(11).
APA Zhao, Liyun,Yang, Yi,Cheng, Wei,Ji, Duoying,&Moore, John C..(2017).Glacier evolution in high-mountain Asia under stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection geoengineering.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,17(11).
MLA Zhao, Liyun,et al."Glacier evolution in high-mountain Asia under stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection geoengineering".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 17.11(2017).
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