Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13915 |
Complex effect of projected sea temperature and wind change on flatfish dispersal | |
Lacroix, Genevieve1; Barbut, Leo1,2; Volckaert, Filip A. M.2 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:1页码:85-100 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Belgium |
英文摘要 | Climate change not only alters ocean physics and chemistry but also affects the biota. Larval dispersal patterns from spawning to nursery grounds and larval survival are driven by hydrodynamic processes and shaped by (a) biotic environmental factors. Therefore, it is important to understand the impacts of increased temperature rise and changes in wind speed and direction on larval drift and survival. We apply a particle-tracking model coupled to a 3D-hydrodynamic model of the English Channel and the North Sea to study the dispersal dynamics of the exploited flatfish (common) sole (Solea solea). We first assess model robustness and interannual variability in larval transport over the period 1995-2011. Then, using a subset of representative years (2003-2011), we investigate the impact of climate change on larval dispersal, connectivity patterns and recruitment at the nursery grounds. The impacts of five scenarios inspired by the 2040 projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are discussed and compared with interannual variability. The results suggest that 33% of the year-to-year recruitment variability is explained at a regional scale and that a 9-year period is sufficient to capture interannual variability in dispersal dynamics. In the scenario involving a temperature increase, early spawning and a wind change, the model predicts that (i) dispersal distance (+70%) and pelagic larval duration (+ 22%) will increase in response to the reduced temperature (similar to 9%) experienced by early hatched larvae, (ii) larval recruitment at the nursery grounds will increase in some areas (36%) and decrease in others (similar to 58%) and (iii) connectivity will show contrasting changes between areas. At the regional scale, our model predicts considerable changes in larval recruitment (+9%) and connectivity (retention similar to 4% and seeding +37%) due to global change. All of these factors affect the distribution and productivity of sole and therefore the functioning of the demersal ecosystem and fisheries management. |
英文关键词 | climate change common sole connectivity eastern English Channel individual-based model larval dispersal North Sea prospective scenarios recruitment Solea solea transport model |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426506100037 |
WOS关键词 | SOLE SOLEA-SOLEA ; MARINE PROTECTED AREAS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; NORTH-SEA ; LARVAL DISPERSAL ; LOCAL REPLENISHMENT ; 0-GROUP SOLE ; EGG SIZE ; CONNECTIVITY ; RECRUITMENT |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17415 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.RBINS, Operat Directorate Nat Environm OD Nat, Brussels, Belgium; 2.Univ Leuven, LBEG, Leuven, Belgium |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lacroix, Genevieve,Barbut, Leo,Volckaert, Filip A. M.. Complex effect of projected sea temperature and wind change on flatfish dispersal[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(1):85-100. |
APA | Lacroix, Genevieve,Barbut, Leo,&Volckaert, Filip A. M..(2018).Complex effect of projected sea temperature and wind change on flatfish dispersal.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(1),85-100. |
MLA | Lacroix, Genevieve,et al."Complex effect of projected sea temperature and wind change on flatfish dispersal".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.1(2018):85-100. |
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