Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13487 |
Landscape dynamics in Mediterranean oak forests under global change: understanding the role of anthropogenic and environmental drivers across forest types | |
Acacio, Vanda1; Dias, Filipe S.1; Catry, Filipe X.1; Rocha, Marta1; Moreira, Francisco1,2 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
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ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 23期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Portugal |
英文摘要 | The Mediterranean region is projected to be extremely vulnerable to global change, which will affect the distribution of typical forest types such as native oak forests. However, our understanding of Mediterranean oak forest responses to future conditions is still very limited by the lack of knowledge on oak forest dynamics and species-specific responses to multiple drivers. We compared the long-term (1966-2006) forest persistence and land cover change among evergreen (cork oak and holm oak) and deciduous oak forests and evaluated the importance of anthropogenic and environmental drivers on observed changes for Portugal. We used National Forest Inventories to quantify the changes in oak forests and explored the drivers of change using multinomial logistic regression analysis and an information theoretical approach. We found distinct trends among oak forest types, reflecting the differences in oak economic value, protection status and management schemes: cork oak forests were the most persistent (62%), changing mostly to pines and eucalypt; holm oak forests were less persistent (53.2%), changing mostly to agriculture; and deciduous oak forests were the least persistent (45.7%), changing mostly to shrublands. Drivers of change had distinct importance across oak forest types, but drivers from anthropogenic origin (wildfires, population density, and land accessibility) were always among the most important. Climatic extremes were also important predictors of oak forest changes, namely extreme temperatures for evergreen oak forests and deficit of precipitation for deciduous oak forests. Our results indicate that under increasing human pressure and forecasted climate change, evergreen oak forests will continue declining and deciduous oak forests will be replaced by forests dominated by more xeric species. In the long run, multiple disturbances may change competitive dominance from oak forests to pyrophytic shrublands. A better understanding of forest dynamics and the inclusion of anthropogenic drivers on models of vegetation change will improve predicting the future of Mediterranean oak forests. |
英文关键词 | climate change cork oak deciduous oaks holm oak land use change Mediterranean ecosystems Quercus wildfire |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396829300020 |
WOS关键词 | LAND-USE CHANGES ; OF-FIT TESTS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PHYTOPHTHORA-CINNAMOMI ; TREE MORTALITY ; QUERCUS-ILEX ; DROUGHT ; FUTURE ; FIRE ; CONSERVATION |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17465 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Lisbon, Sch Agr, Ctr Appl Ecol CEABN InBIO, P-1349017 Lisbon, Portugal; 2.Univ Porto, REN Biodivers Chair, CIBIO InBIO, Campus Agr Vairao, P-4485601 Vairao, Portugal |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Acacio, Vanda,Dias, Filipe S.,Catry, Filipe X.,et al. Landscape dynamics in Mediterranean oak forests under global change: understanding the role of anthropogenic and environmental drivers across forest types[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(3). |
APA | Acacio, Vanda,Dias, Filipe S.,Catry, Filipe X.,Rocha, Marta,&Moreira, Francisco.(2017).Landscape dynamics in Mediterranean oak forests under global change: understanding the role of anthropogenic and environmental drivers across forest types.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(3). |
MLA | Acacio, Vanda,et al."Landscape dynamics in Mediterranean oak forests under global change: understanding the role of anthropogenic and environmental drivers across forest types".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.3(2017). |
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