Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.14169 |
An empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on local colonization and extinction | |
Yalcin, Semra; Leroux, Shawn James | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
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ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:8页码:3849-3861 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | Land-cover and climate change are two main drivers of changes in species ranges. Yet, the majority of studies investigating the impacts of global change on biodiversity focus on one global change driver and usually use simulations to project biodiversity responses to future conditions. We conduct an empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on species occurrence changes. Specifically, we examine whether observed local colonization and extinctions of North American birds between 1981-1985 and 2001-2005 are correlated with land-cover and climate change and whether bird life history and ecological traits explain interspecific variation in observed occurrence changes. We fit logistic regression models to test the impact of physical land-cover change, changes in net primary productivity, winter precipitation, mean summer temperature, and mean winter temperature on the probability of Ontario breeding bird local colonization and extinction. Models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local colonization for 30%, 27%, and 29% of species, respectively. Conversely, models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local extinction for 61%, 7%, and 9% of species, respectively. The quantitative impacts of land-cover and climate change variables also vary among bird species. We then fit linear regression models to test whether the variation in regional colonization and extinction rate could be explained by mean body mass, migratory strategy, and habitat preference of birds. Overall, species traits were weakly correlated with heterogeneity in species occurrence changes. We provide empirical evidence showing that land-cover change, climate change, and the combination of multiple global change drivers can differentially explain observed species local colonization and extinction. |
英文关键词 | avian community colonization distribution pattern extinction global change global warming habitat alteration land-use change long-term monitoring |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000437284700045 |
WOS关键词 | SPECIES TRAITS ; RANGE SHIFTS ; GLOBAL ASSESSMENT ; MODEL SELECTION ; HABITAT LOSS ; BIODIVERSITY ; BIRDS ; FRAGMENTATION ; VULNERABILITY ; DISPERSAL |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17595 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | Mem Univ Newfoundland, Fac Sci, Dept Biol, St John, NF, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yalcin, Semra,Leroux, Shawn James. An empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on local colonization and extinction[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(8):3849-3861. |
APA | Yalcin, Semra,&Leroux, Shawn James.(2018).An empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on local colonization and extinction.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(8),3849-3861. |
MLA | Yalcin, Semra,et al."An empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on local colonization and extinction".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.8(2018):3849-3861. |
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