Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.14373 |
Climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic factors determine connectivity between current and future climate analogs in North America | |
Carroll, Carlos1; Parks, Sean A.2; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.3; Roberts, David R.4,5 | |
2018-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
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ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:11页码:5318-5331 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Canada |
英文摘要 | As climatic conditions shift in coming decades, persistence of many populations will depend on their ability to colonize habitat newly suitable for their climatic requirements. Opportunities for such range shifts may be limited unless areas that facilitate dispersal under climate change are identified and protected from land uses that impede movement. While many climate adaptation strategies focus on identifying refugia, this study is the first to characterize areas which merit protection for their role in promoting climate connectivity at a continental extent. We identified climate connectivity areas across North America by delineating paths between current climate types and their future analogs that avoided nonanalogous climates, and used centrality metrics to rank the contribution of each location to facilitating dispersal across the landscape. The distribution of connectivity areas was influenced by climatic and topographic factors at multiple spatial scales. Results were robust to uncertainty in the magnitude of future climate change arising from differing emissions scenarios and general circulation models, but sensitive to analysis extent and assumptions concerning dispersal behavior and maximum dispersal distance. Paths were funneled along north-south trending passes and valley systems and away from areas of novel and disappearing climates. Climate connectivity areas, where many potential dispersal paths overlapped, were distinct from refugia and thus poorly captured by many existing conservation strategies. Existing protected areas with high connectivity values were found in southern Mexico, the southwestern US, and western and arctic Canada and Alaska. Ecoregions within the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Great Plains, eastern temperate forests, high Arctic, and western Canadian Cordillera hold important climate connectivity areas which merit increased conservation focus due to anthropogenic pressures or current low levels of protection. Our coarse-filter climate-type-based results complement and contextualize species-specific analyses and add a missing dimension to climate adaptation planning by identifying landscape features which promote connectivity among refugia. |
英文关键词 | climate change adaptation connectivity conservation planning graph theory protected areas refugia |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000447760300026 |
WOS关键词 | DISPERSAL CORRIDORS ; PROTECTED AREAS ; CONSERVATION ; LANDSCAPE ; VELOCITY ; MANAGEMENT ; POPULATIONS ; DIVERSITY ; MIGRATION ; MOVEMENT |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17758 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Klamath Ctr Conservat Res, Orleans, CA 95556 USA; 2.US Forest Serv, Aldo Leopold Wilderness Res Inst, Rocky Mt Res Stn, Missoula, MT USA; 3.Univ Montana, Dept Forest Management, Coll Forestry & Conservat, Missoula, MT 59812 USA; 4.Univ Calgary, Dept Geog, Calgary, AB, Canada; 5.Univ Calgary, Arctic Inst North Amer, Calgary, AB, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Carroll, Carlos,Parks, Sean A.,Dobrowski, Solomon Z.,et al. Climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic factors determine connectivity between current and future climate analogs in North America[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(11):5318-5331. |
APA | Carroll, Carlos,Parks, Sean A.,Dobrowski, Solomon Z.,&Roberts, David R..(2018).Climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic factors determine connectivity between current and future climate analogs in North America.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(11),5318-5331. |
MLA | Carroll, Carlos,et al."Climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic factors determine connectivity between current and future climate analogs in North America".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.11(2018):5318-5331. |
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