Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13935 |
How complex should models be? Comparing correlative and mechanistic range dynamics models | |
Fordham, Damien A.1,2; Bertelsmeier, Cleo1,2,3; Brook, Barry W.4; Early, Regan5; Neto, Dora6; Brown, Stuart C.1,2; Ollier, Sebastien7; Araujo, Miguel B.6,8,9 | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
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ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:3页码:1357-1370 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; Switzerland; England; Portugal; France; Spain; Denmark |
英文摘要 | Criticism has been levelled at climate-change-induced forecasts of species range shifts that do not account explicitly for complex population dynamics. The relative importance of such dynamics under climate change is, however, undetermined because direct tests comparing the performance of demographic models vs. simpler ecological niche models are still lacking owing to difficulties in evaluating forecasts using real-world data. We provide the first comparison of the skill of coupled ecological-niche-population models and ecological niche models in predicting documented shifts in the ranges of 20 British breeding bird species across a 40-year period. Forecasts from models calibrated with data centred on 1970 were evaluated using data centred on 2010. We found that more complex coupled ecological-niche-population models (that account for dispersal and metapopulation dynamics) tend to have higher predictive accuracy in forecasting species range shifts than structurally simpler models that only account for variation in climate. However, these better forecasts are achieved only if ecological responses to climate change are simulated without static snapshots of historic land use, taken at a single point in time. In contrast, including both static land use and dynamic climate variables in simpler ecological niche models improve forecasts of observed range shifts. Despite being less skilful at predicting range changes at the grid-cell level, ecological niche models do as well, or better, than more complex models at predicting the magnitude of relative change in range size. Therefore, ecological niche models can provide a reasonable first approximation of the magnitude of species' potential range shifts, especially when more detailed data are lacking on dispersal dynamics, demographic processes underpinning population performance, and change in land cover. |
英文关键词 | climate change hybrid ecological niche model independent model validation land use mechanistic model metapopulation and dispersal dynamics species distribution model transferability |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425396700039 |
WOS关键词 | SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE ; CHANGING CLIMATE ; HABITAT MODELS ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; FUTURE ; BIODIVERSITY ; CONSERVATION ; PREDICTION |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17770 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Adelaide, Environm Inst, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 2.Univ Adelaide, Sch Biol Sci, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 3.Univ Lausanne, Dept Ecol & Evolut, Lausanne, Switzerland; 4.Univ Tasmania, Sch Biol Sci, Hobart, Tas, Australia; 5.Univ Exeter, Ctr Ecol & Conservat, Cornwall Campus, Penryn, Cornwall, England; 6.Univ Evora, InBio CIBIO, Evora, Portugal; 7.Univ Paris 11, CNRS, UMR 8079, Orsay, France; 8.CSIC, Natl Museum Nat Sci, Madrid, Spain; 9.Univ Copenhagen, Ctr Macroecol Evolut & Climate, Nat Hist Museum Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fordham, Damien A.,Bertelsmeier, Cleo,Brook, Barry W.,et al. How complex should models be? Comparing correlative and mechanistic range dynamics models[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(3):1357-1370. |
APA | Fordham, Damien A..,Bertelsmeier, Cleo.,Brook, Barry W..,Early, Regan.,Neto, Dora.,...&Araujo, Miguel B..(2018).How complex should models be? Comparing correlative and mechanistic range dynamics models.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(3),1357-1370. |
MLA | Fordham, Damien A.,et al."How complex should models be? Comparing correlative and mechanistic range dynamics models".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.3(2018):1357-1370. |
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