GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1016/j.enpol.2017.12.052
Economic consequences of and resilience to a disruption of petroleum trade: The role of seaports in US energy security
Rose, Adam1,2,5; Wei, Dan1,2,5; Paul, Donald3,4,6
2018-04-01
发表期刊ENERGY POLICY
ISSN0301-4215
EISSN1873-6777
出版年2018
卷号115页码:584-615
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Despite increased domestic production, the U.S. is still importing more than one-third of its crude oil needs, the vast majority via ocean tankers. At the same time, there are increasing concerns about the vulnerability of ports and terminals to man-made and natural disasters. This paper advances a methodology for estimating the total economic consequences of and resilience to a disruption of crude oil and refined petroleum product trade at a major seaport. The methodology is able to estimate not only the direct impacts of such disruptions but also the supply-chain effects. It also estimates the effects of muting the impacts by various resilience tactics such as ship re-routing, drawing inventories from storage, accessing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, geographic shifting of petroleum refining, and production rescheduling. We apply the methodology to a 90-day disruption of petroleum trade at the twin seaports of Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas. The results indicate that port region and national economic activity could decline by billions of dollars, but that resilience can reduce these consequences significantly. We also conclude that factors associated with the recent surge in the extraction of shale and tight oil resources has significantly enhanced the potential effectiveness of some resilience tactics.


英文关键词Energy security National security Petroleum imports and exports Seaport disruption Resilience
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000428099800055
WOS关键词IMPACTS ; MODEL ; OIL ; PLAUSIBILITY ; SHUTDOWN
WOS类目Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17809
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Southern Calif, Sol Price Sch Publ Policy, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA;
2.Univ Southern Calif, CREATE, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA;
3.Univ Southern Calif, Viterbi Sch Engn, Los Angeles, CA USA;
4.Univ Southern Calif, Energy Inst, Los Angeles, CA USA;
5.USC, Price Sch Publ Policy, Los Angeles, CA USA;
6.USC, Viterbi Sch Engn, Los Angeles, CA USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Rose, Adam,Wei, Dan,Paul, Donald. Economic consequences of and resilience to a disruption of petroleum trade: The role of seaports in US energy security[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,115:584-615.
APA Rose, Adam,Wei, Dan,&Paul, Donald.(2018).Economic consequences of and resilience to a disruption of petroleum trade: The role of seaports in US energy security.ENERGY POLICY,115,584-615.
MLA Rose, Adam,et al."Economic consequences of and resilience to a disruption of petroleum trade: The role of seaports in US energy security".ENERGY POLICY 115(2018):584-615.
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