Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.06.030 |
Is power generation really the gold measure of the Chinese economy? A conceptual and empirical assessment | |
Zhang, Jin1,2; Li, Pujiang1; Zhao, Guochang1 | |
2018-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 121页码:211-216 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Amid widespread concern about the quality of the Chinese GDP data, power generation has become probably the single most cited indicator about the Chinese economy other than official statistics. For the first time, we provide an assessment on the efficacy of power generation as such an indicator, using both conceptual and empirical analyses. We show that (i) conceptually, it is somewhat misleading to use power generation as coincident indicator to infer the growth rate of GDP, due to the change of power intensity; (ii) empirically, power generation beats railway cargo and bank loan, the two other variables in the Li Keqiang index, as the best predictor in forecasting the Chinese GDP over the full sample; however, this superiority holds mainly during period of sharp change, i.e., the financial crisis period, but not when the economy is relatively stable, especially the current New Normal period. These two findings place important caveats on the common trust we have in power generation as an influential variable for measuring the Chinese economy. |
英文关键词 | Power generation GDP forecasting China Li Keqiang index MIDAS |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000445983800021 |
WOS关键词 | ENERGY INTENSITY ; GROWTH ; PRICES ; SPACE |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17927 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Southwestern Univ Finance & Econ, Res Inst Econ & Management, Chengdu 610074, Sichuan, Peoples R China; 2.Survey & Res Ctr China Household Finance, Chengdu, Sichuan, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Jin,Li, Pujiang,Zhao, Guochang. Is power generation really the gold measure of the Chinese economy? A conceptual and empirical assessment[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,121:211-216. |
APA | Zhang, Jin,Li, Pujiang,&Zhao, Guochang.(2018).Is power generation really the gold measure of the Chinese economy? A conceptual and empirical assessment.ENERGY POLICY,121,211-216. |
MLA | Zhang, Jin,et al."Is power generation really the gold measure of the Chinese economy? A conceptual and empirical assessment".ENERGY POLICY 121(2018):211-216. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论