Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.03.030 |
Economic impacts of natural gas flow disruptions between Russia and the EU | |
Bouwmeester, Maaike C.1; Oosterhaven, J.2 | |
2017-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 106 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Luxembourg; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | In this paper we use a non-linear programming approach to predict the wider interregional and interindustry impacts of natural gas flow disruptions. In the short rim, economic actors attempt to continue their business-as-usual and follow established trade patters as closely as possible. In the model this is modelled by minimizing the information gain between the original pattern of economic transactions and the situation in which natural gas flows are disrupted. We analyze four scenarios that simulate Russian export stops of natural gas by means of a model calibrated on an international input-output table with six sectors and six regions. The simulations show that at the lower levels of aggregation considerable effects are found. At the aggregate level of the whole economy, however, the impacts of the four scenarios are negligible for Europe and only a little less so for Russia itself. Interestingly, the effects on the size of the economy, as measured by its GDP, are predominantly positive for the various European regions, but negative for Russia. The effects on the welfare of the populations involved, however, as measured by the size of domestic final demand, have an opposite sign; with predominantly negligible but negative effects for European regions, and very small positive effects for the Russian population. |
英文关键词 | Natural gas Supply shocks Non-linear programming Russia European Union |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000402343600029 |
WOS关键词 | FUTURE ; MODEL ; SCENARIOS ; EXPORTS ; MARKET ; TRADE ; EAST |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17958 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.European Commiss, L-2920 Eurostat, Luxembourg; 2.Univ Groningen, Fac Econ & Business, POB 800, NL-9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bouwmeester, Maaike C.,Oosterhaven, J.. Economic impacts of natural gas flow disruptions between Russia and the EU[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2017,106. |
APA | Bouwmeester, Maaike C.,&Oosterhaven, J..(2017).Economic impacts of natural gas flow disruptions between Russia and the EU.ENERGY POLICY,106. |
MLA | Bouwmeester, Maaike C.,et al."Economic impacts of natural gas flow disruptions between Russia and the EU".ENERGY POLICY 106(2017). |
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