GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.025
The impact of planning reserve margins in long-term planning models of the electricity sector
Reimers, Andrew; Cole, Wesley; Frew, Bethany
2019-02-01
发表期刊ENERGY POLICY
ISSN0301-4215
EISSN1873-6777
出版年2019
卷号125页码:1-8
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

The planning reserve margin is the predominant metric used in long-term planning models to ensure the resource adequacy of projected power systems. Considerable work has been done to estimate the contribution of variable renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar, to the planning reserve margin, but little work has been done to assess what planning reserve margin should be used in planning models. Typically, U.S.-based models use the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)-recommended reserve margin levels. However, historical reserve margins have often exceeded the NERC-recommended levels, suggesting that the use of NERC-recommended levels in planning models may negatively bias projected future capacity investments relative to real-world trends. Using the Regional Energy Deployment System capacity expansion model, we show that setting the planning reserve margin to observed levels in lieu of the NERC-recommended levels leads to substantial differences in near-term capacity additions. Scenarios using alternative specifications for the reserve margin resulted in increased national solar builds of 20-100 GW. Given that the magnitude on results from altering the reserve margin level is similar to or greater than many policies frequently analyzed with planning models, careful consideration of the reserve margin level is crucial for developing accurate power sector projections.


英文关键词Planning Reserve Margin NERC Capacity Expansion
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000456758600001
WOS关键词MARKET ; RETIREMENTS
WOS类目Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17972
专题气候变化
作者单位Natl Renewable Energy Lab, Forecasting & Modeling Grp, Golden, CO 80401 USA
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GB/T 7714
Reimers, Andrew,Cole, Wesley,Frew, Bethany. The impact of planning reserve margins in long-term planning models of the electricity sector[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2019,125:1-8.
APA Reimers, Andrew,Cole, Wesley,&Frew, Bethany.(2019).The impact of planning reserve margins in long-term planning models of the electricity sector.ENERGY POLICY,125,1-8.
MLA Reimers, Andrew,et al."The impact of planning reserve margins in long-term planning models of the electricity sector".ENERGY POLICY 125(2019):1-8.
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