Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.3354/cr01549 |
Evaluation and quantification of surface air temperature over Eurasia based on CMIP5 models | |
Peng, Xiaoqing1; Zhang, Tingjun1; Frauenfeld, Oliver W.2; Wang, Kang3; Sun, Wen1; Luo, Jing4 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0936-577X |
EISSN | 1616-1572 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 77期号:2页码:167-180 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | Parts of Eurasia underlain by large areas of frozen ground that are both sensitive to, and an indicator of, climate change. Previous studies have investigated the effect of climate change on frozen ground; however, those studies did not quantify the past or projected climate change effects for specific frozen ground regions. This study applied surface air temperature from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data set and the multi-model ensemble mean of 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models to evaluate past and projected surface air temperature changes, and quantify changes in different frozen ground regions. Results indicate that CMIP5 can simulate surface air temperature over Eurasia well, and there is slightly better performance of CMIP5 ensemble averages in the late 20th century than in the early 20th century. Over the Eurasian continent, time-series of ensemble area-averaged mean annual air temperatures (MAT) from CMIP5 increased at about 0.074 degrees C decade(-1) during 1850-2005, and are projected to increase by 0.078-0.719 degrees C decade(-1), depending on future emission pathways, during 2006-2100. Compared to the period 1986-2005, the temperature is predicted to be 1.68-6.41 degrees C higher during 2081-2100. Changes of MAT demonstrate that the fastest increase will occur in continuous permafrost regions, next in discontinuous permafrost regions, followed by sporadic, isolated, and relict permafrost, and finally non-permafrost regions. Overall, these results can be used to help estimate and project cryospheric changes. |
英文关键词 | Eurasia CMIP5 Permafrost Surface air temperature |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000482741500006 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SNOW DEPTH ; SEA-ICE ; PERMAFROST ; STATE ; CHINA ; AMPLIFICATION ; SYSTEM |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181248 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Lanzhou Univ, Coll Earth & Environm Sci, Minist Educ, Key Lab Western Chinas Environm Syst, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China; 2.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Geog, College Stn, TX 77843 USA; 3.Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Frozen Soil Engn, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Peng, Xiaoqing,Zhang, Tingjun,Frauenfeld, Oliver W.,et al. Evaluation and quantification of surface air temperature over Eurasia based on CMIP5 models[J]. CLIMATE RESEARCH,2019,77(2):167-180. |
APA | Peng, Xiaoqing,Zhang, Tingjun,Frauenfeld, Oliver W.,Wang, Kang,Sun, Wen,&Luo, Jing.(2019).Evaluation and quantification of surface air temperature over Eurasia based on CMIP5 models.CLIMATE RESEARCH,77(2),167-180. |
MLA | Peng, Xiaoqing,et al."Evaluation and quantification of surface air temperature over Eurasia based on CMIP5 models".CLIMATE RESEARCH 77.2(2019):167-180. |
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