Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.3354/cr01567 |
A new method to identify robust climate analogues | |
Walther, Carsten; Luedeke, Matthias; Gudipudi, Ramana | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0936-577X |
EISSN | 1616-1572 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 78期号:2页码:179-187 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | Climate analogues are a comprehensive approach for learning how to deal with the expected climatic future from current examples. Existing literature on climate analogues struggles with 2 methodological challenges: how to deal with the unavoidable uncertainty of climate projections and how to define reasonable lower limits of similarity for climate analogues. Here, we suggest a new method to identify robust climate analogues (RCAs) based on a clustering approach in climate space where each spatial grid element is represented by 3 points: its current climate, and a lower and upper bound of the climate projections. If the upper and lower bound of the projections for such a grid element share the same cluster and, additionally, this cluster contains current climate points, then the grid elements related to the latter are defined as RCAs. This definition divides the map of the investigated region into areas with RCAs and uncharted areas where, under the current uncertainty range of climate projections, such an attribution is not justified. An exemplary application of the algorithm for Europe shows that RCAs can be identified for 37 % of the land area and that the new method allows selection of socioeconomically reasonable RCAs from climatologically equivalent (given the current uncertainty) grid elements. |
英文关键词 | Climate analogue Clustering algorithm Adaptation Uncertainty Regional climate model |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000482744300006 |
WOS关键词 | ADAPTATION ; ENSEMBLE ; IMPACTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181268 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Walther, Carsten,Luedeke, Matthias,Gudipudi, Ramana. A new method to identify robust climate analogues[J]. CLIMATE RESEARCH,2019,78(2):179-187. |
APA | Walther, Carsten,Luedeke, Matthias,&Gudipudi, Ramana.(2019).A new method to identify robust climate analogues.CLIMATE RESEARCH,78(2),179-187. |
MLA | Walther, Carsten,et al."A new method to identify robust climate analogues".CLIMATE RESEARCH 78.2(2019):179-187. |
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