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DOI | 10.1029/2018GL081334 |
Skilful Seasonal Prediction of Ocean Surface Waves in the Atlantic Ocean | |
Dobrynin, Mikhail; Kleine, Tobias; Duesterhus, Andre; Baehr, Johanna | |
2019-02-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:3页码:1731-1739 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | Ocean surface wave height in the Atlantic Ocean is strongly influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Here we demonstrate for the first time a skilful seasonal forecast for wave height in the Atlantic Ocean, produced by a seasonal prediction system with an enhanced prediction skill of winter NAO. The improved seasonal prediction skill of the wave height reaches 0.8 in major parts of the North Atlantic. Prediction skill in the Central and South Atlantic is significantly improved due to swell propagation from better represented active wave generation regions in the North Atlantic. By subsampling, the modeling of climatological anomalies of seasonal wave height for strongly positive and negative NAO phases is considerably improved. We demonstrate the potential of an improved, subsampling-based approach for the dynamical seasonal prediction of waves, specifically for extreme seasons during strong NAO phases, which can be implemented for operational purposes. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000462072800067 |
WOS关键词 | NORTHEAST ATLANTIC ; CLIMATE ; PREDICTABILITY ; HEIGHTS ; MODEL ; NAO |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181393 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Hamburg, Ctr Earth Syst Res & Sustainabil CEN, Inst Oceanog, Hamburg, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dobrynin, Mikhail,Kleine, Tobias,Duesterhus, Andre,et al. Skilful Seasonal Prediction of Ocean Surface Waves in the Atlantic Ocean[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(3):1731-1739. |
APA | Dobrynin, Mikhail,Kleine, Tobias,Duesterhus, Andre,&Baehr, Johanna.(2019).Skilful Seasonal Prediction of Ocean Surface Waves in the Atlantic Ocean.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(3),1731-1739. |
MLA | Dobrynin, Mikhail,et al."Skilful Seasonal Prediction of Ocean Surface Waves in the Atlantic Ocean".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.3(2019):1731-1739. |
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