资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

In this paper, the performance of 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models forced by observational SSTs in simulating the tropical Pacific convective variation and the atmospheric responses in the extratropics are assessed. The multi-model ensemble mean results of 18 CMIP5 models show that five major patterns of tropical Pacific convection anomaly in winter can indeed be well reproduced, however, the simulation of the corresponding extratropical responses for each pattern exists some deficiency except for the La Nina pattern compared with observations. We defined an optimized subset of well performing models (ACCESS1.0, CanAM4, CCSM4, CMCC-CM, HadGEM2-A, MPI-ESM-MR) in tropical Pacific deep convection according to the ranking of model skill score. These models exhibit approximately identical convection anomaly patterns in both amplitude and spatial structure to the observation, which potentially might improve the representation of extratropical teleconnections with the tropical Pacific, especially for the CP El Nino (CPEN), EP El Nino (EPEN) and western CP (W-CP) patterns. Both evident atmospheric anomalies of CPEN and EPEN patterns over the NA/E sector and the northeastward propagating wave trains of W-CP pattern can be quite well simulated in the high-skilled models.