Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018GL081724 |
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Predictions of Days 1-15 US Tornado and Hail Frequencies | |
Gensini, Vittorio A.1; Tippett, Michael K.2 | |
2019-03-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:5页码:2922-2930 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | U.S. severe convective storms have grown to represent a 10 billion dollar annual peril for the insurance industry, and their accurate prediction remains a challenging task. This study examines days 1-15 severe convective storm predictions from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). GEFS forecasts are based on the Supercell Composite Parameter and verified against spatially smoothed tornado and hail reports over the periods 1 March to 31 May 2016-2017. Skill is analyzed for deterministic forecasts (ensemble mean Supercell Composite Parameter exceeding specified thresholds) and probabilistic forecasts (fraction of ensemble members exceeding specified thresholds). Deterministic forecasts of tornado and hail activities are statistically more skillful than a random no-skill reference to days 9 and 12, respectively. Probabilistic forecasts are skillful relative to climatological no-skill reference to day 9 for tornado and day 12 for hail activity. These results provide a useful baseline for further improvement of tornado and hail forecasts at these ranges. Plain Language Summary Tornadoes and hailstorms represent a 10billion dollar annual peril for the insurance industry. Prediction of these extreme events at long lead times is a challenging task. This research shows that it is possible to use the Global Ensemble Forecast System to anticipate tornado and hail events in the United States at lead times beyond 1 week. This represents an important baseline for the improvement of tornado and hail forecasts at the subseasonal to seasonal time scales. |
英文关键词 | tornado hail forecasting ensemble GFS meteorology |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000462612900065 |
WOS关键词 | SUPERCELL ; ENVIRONMENTS ; SKILL |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181655 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Northern Illinois Univ, Dept Geog & Atmospher Sci, De Kalb, IL 60115 USA; 2.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gensini, Vittorio A.,Tippett, Michael K.. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Predictions of Days 1-15 US Tornado and Hail Frequencies[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(5):2922-2930. |
APA | Gensini, Vittorio A.,&Tippett, Michael K..(2019).Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Predictions of Days 1-15 US Tornado and Hail Frequencies.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(5),2922-2930. |
MLA | Gensini, Vittorio A.,et al."Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Predictions of Days 1-15 US Tornado and Hail Frequencies".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.5(2019):2922-2930. |
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