Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5923 |
A circulation-based approach considering non-stationarities within the scope of statistical downscaling: An example of seasonal daily precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area | |
Merkenschlager, Christian; Hertig, Elke | |
2019-03-30 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 39期号:4页码:1912-1926 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | Non-stationarities within the predictor-predictand relationships can substantially affect model skill of statistical downscaling approaches. For this reason, an approach is presented which takes varying predictor-predictand relationships explicitly into account. Seasonal aggregated daily precipitation extremes (90th, 95th and 99th quantiles) were assessed by means of 31-year running contiguous calibration periods. Here, when the end of the time series was reached years from the beginning were attached. Thus, a regression model ensemble (RME) becomes available, with the number of established statistical models corresponding to the number of years within the time series. With respect to non-stationarities in the projection periods, a novel approach is presented. A single model of the RME is determined for each sub-period which seems to be the most suitable model (MSM) for assessing precipitation extremes within the respective period. In order to define the MSM weighted correlations of atmospheric circulation composites, represented by the geopotential heights, between reanalysis and model runs were calculated for all significant predictors. The reanalysis period which exhibits the highest mean correlation coefficient is then considered for the projections of the respective period of the model runs. Subsequently, a second selection process was performed in order to determine whether the regression model (RM) established within this period or the model with the highest skill within this period is used for assessing future precipitation extremes. Results have shown that projections can significantly differ depending on whether a non-stationary or a stationary downscaling setup is used for the assessments. |
英文关键词 | Mediterranean non-stationarities precipitation extremes seasonal predictions statistical downscaling |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000465456400007 |
WOS关键词 | DAILY TEMPERATURE ; INDEXES ; REANALYSIS ; EVENTS ; EUROPE ; SERIES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181816 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Augsburg, Inst Geog, Alter Postweg 118, D-86159 Augsburg, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Merkenschlager, Christian,Hertig, Elke. A circulation-based approach considering non-stationarities within the scope of statistical downscaling: An example of seasonal daily precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019,39(4):1912-1926. |
APA | Merkenschlager, Christian,&Hertig, Elke.(2019).A circulation-based approach considering non-stationarities within the scope of statistical downscaling: An example of seasonal daily precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,39(4),1912-1926. |
MLA | Merkenschlager, Christian,et al."A circulation-based approach considering non-stationarities within the scope of statistical downscaling: An example of seasonal daily precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 39.4(2019):1912-1926. |
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