资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

This study assesses the performance of regional climate model version 4 (RegCM4) in simulating the monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK). It also examines any possible relationship between the onset dates with the summer monsoon rainfall over India as whole as well as each grid points of the India land points and also the moisture inflow into Indian subcontinent. A 30-year long simulation starting from 1979 till 2008 was carried out with the lateral boundary forcings provided by European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA-interim) at 25 km horizontal resolution. The simulated climatological MOK date is found to be 28th May, while as per the India Meteorological Department, climatological normal onset date is 1st June. The model has performed well in simulating the inter-annual variation of MOK during the study period. The correlation coefficient between model simulated and observed MOK is 0.83 significant at 95% confidence level. In both model and observations, the MOK is weakly correlated with All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall. Again, the model skill was examined through equitable threat score (ETS). The ETS score is high for normal (0.48) and delayed (0.42) onset years, while the score is very low in early onset years. The spatial patterns of rainfall over central India are very similar in early and normal onset years. The model has performed well in reproducing the moisture inflow in to the Indian subcontinent from all the directions in most of the years, but there is no one-to-one relation between different categories of MOK years with total rainfall and net moisture inflow. Based on this study, it is found that RegCM4 reproduces different aspects of MOK reasonably well.