资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

A new set of CORDEX simulations over South America, together with their coarser-resolution driving Global Climate Models (GCMs) are used to investigate added value of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing mean climate conditions over the continent. There are two types of simulations with different lateral boundary conditions: five hindcast simulations use re-analysis as boundary conditions, and five other historical simulations use GCMs outputs. Multi-model ensemble means and individual simulations are evaluated against two or three observation-based gridded datasets for 2-m surface air temperature and total precipitation. The analysis is performed for summer and winter, over a common period from 1990 to 2004. Results indicate that added value of RCMs is dependent on driving fields, surface properties of the area, season and variable considered. A robust added value for RCMs driven by ERA-Interim is obtained in reproducing the summer climatology of surface air temperature over tropical and subtropical latitudes. Mixed results can be seen, however, for summer precipitation climatology in both hindcast and historical experiments. For winter, there is no noticeable improvement by the RCMs for the large-scale precipitation and surface air temperature climatology. To further understand the added value of RCMs, models deviations from observation are decomposed according to different terms that reflect the observational uncertainty, the representativeness error, the interpolation error, and the actual performance of the model. Regions where these errors are not negligible, such as in complex terrain regions, among others, can be identified. There is a clear need for complementary assessment to understand better the real value added by RCMs.