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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0465.1 |
Evaluation and Future Projection of Chinese Precipitation Extremes Using Large Ensemble High-Resolution Climate Simulations | |
Duan, Weili1; Hanasaki, Naota2; Shiogama, Hideo2; Chen, Yaning1; Zou, Shan1,3; Nover, Daniel4; Zhou, Botao5; Wang, Yi1 | |
2019-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:8页码:2169-2183 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Japan; USA |
英文摘要 | Evaluation of Chinese precipitation extremes is conducted based on large ensemble projections of the present climate and 4-K-warmer climates derived from a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. The model reproduced the overall trend and magnitude of total precipitation and extreme precipitation events for China reasonably well, revealing that this dataset can represent localized precipitation extremes. Precipitation extremes are more frequent and more severe in future projections under 4-K-warmer climates than in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Our results show that using a large-ensemble simulation can improve the ability to estimate with high precision both the precipitation mean and the precipitation extremes compared with small numbers of simulations, and the averaged maximum yearly precipitation will be likely to increase by approximately 18% under a +4-K future in southern China compared with the past. Finally, uncertainty evaluation in future precipitation projections indicates that the component caused by the difference in six SST patterns is more important in southern China compared with the component due to the atmospheric internal variability. All these results could provide valuable insights in simulating and predicting precipitation extremes in China. |
英文关键词 | Atmosphere Climate variability Climate models Annual variations |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000465350600001 |
WOS关键词 | REGIONAL CLIMATE ; HEAVY-PRECIPITATION ; DAILY TEMPERATURE ; CMIP5 ; VARIABILITY ; INDEXES ; FLOODS ; GRIDS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/182138 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi, Peoples R China; 2.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Global Environm Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 4.Univ Calif Merced, Dept Engn, Merced, CA USA; 5.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Minist Educ, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Duan, Weili,Hanasaki, Naota,Shiogama, Hideo,et al. Evaluation and Future Projection of Chinese Precipitation Extremes Using Large Ensemble High-Resolution Climate Simulations[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(8):2169-2183. |
APA | Duan, Weili.,Hanasaki, Naota.,Shiogama, Hideo.,Chen, Yaning.,Zou, Shan.,...&Wang, Yi.(2019).Evaluation and Future Projection of Chinese Precipitation Extremes Using Large Ensemble High-Resolution Climate Simulations.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(8),2169-2183. |
MLA | Duan, Weili,et al."Evaluation and Future Projection of Chinese Precipitation Extremes Using Large Ensemble High-Resolution Climate Simulations".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.8(2019):2169-2183. |
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