资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

This paper examines the impact of climate variability and change (CV&C), and energy policies on the future energy system in Australia. Scenarios were developed to represent CV&C impacts and policy options, which were analysed with the Long-range Energy Alternative and Planning system for the period 2010-2050. The results indicate that although energy demand is likely to increase threefold in the business-as-usual scenario, CV&C further increases demand to 150 petajoule. A combined policy option involving modal shift and penetration of electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles results in a 49-53% decrease in transport fuel demand and emissions. The economic analysis reveals a substantial decline in sales revenue and increase in generation costs due to CV&C impacts. Higher renewable energy integration results in lower wholesale electricity prices across independent electricity markets. Cumulative cost-benefit analysis indicates that economic benefits increase to US$4.9 trillion in an advanced renewable energy scenario. Emissions and energy consumed increased under climatic conditions, but decreased after policy intervention. Ignoring the influence of CV&C may result in underestimation of future energy demand and installed capacity in Australia. Therefore, energy and climate policies should consider long-term economic benefits over short-term system costs.