资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

To facilitate energy system transition, China needs to further optimize energy structure and improve energy efficiency. Compared with physical energy consumption, effective energy consumption can better reflect the actual household energy consumption level. Based on a review of relevant literatures and official statistics, we first estimated the amounts of biogas, dung and solar energy utilized by rural households, and set up the time series of actual rural household energy consumption. The effective energy consumption was measured by the thermal efficiency of fuels from existing literatures, and main characteristics and trend of energy structure change were revealed. Finally, possible scenarios of energy use in 2030 were analyzed. The results show that per capita physical energy consumption and effective energy consumption reached 546.4 kgce and 142.5 kgce in 2015, respectively. The multiple thermal efficiency of all fuel increased from 16.02% in 1990 to 26.08% in 2015, to which the main contributor was energy structure change rather than physical energy consumption growth. The trends including total energy consumption declining and per capita energy consumption growing will continue until 2030. The shares of clean and efficient non-solid fuels in total energy consumption will further increase, whereas the share of renewable energy will decline.