Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab154b |
The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields | |
Vogel, Elisabeth1,2; Donat, Markus G.3,4,5; Alexander, Lisa, V3,5; Meinshausen, Malte1,2,6; Ray, Deepak K.7; Karoly, David2,8; Meinshausen, Nicolai9; Frieler, Katja6 | |
2019-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:5 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; Spain; Germany; USA; Switzerland |
英文摘要 | Climate extremes, such as droughts or heat waves, can lead to harvest failures and threaten the livelihoods of agricultural producers and the food security of communities worldwide. Improving our understanding of their impacts on crop yields is crucial to enhance the resilience of the global food system. This study analyses, to our knowledge for the first time, the impacts of climate extremes on yield anomalies of maize, soybeans, rice and spring wheat at the global scale using sub-national yield data and applying a machine-learning algorithm. We find that growing season climate factors-including mean climate as well as climate extremes-explain 20%-49% of the variance of yield anomalies (the range describes the differences between crop types), with 18%-43% of the explained variance attributable to climate extremes, depending on crop type. Temperature-related extremes show a stronger association with yield anomalies than precipitation-related factors, while irrigation partly mitigates negative effects of high temperature extremes. We developed a composite indicator to identify hotspot regions that are critical for global production and particularly susceptible to the effects of climate extremes. These regions include North America for maize, spring wheat and soy production, Asia in the case of maize and rice production as well as Europe for spring wheat production. Our study highlights the importance of considering climate extremes for agricultural predictions and adaptation planning and provides an overview of critical regions that are most susceptible to variations in growing season climate and climate extremes. |
英文关键词 | agriculture crop yields extreme weather events random forest machine learning |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000466900800003 |
WOS关键词 | DROUGHT ; MODELS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/182828 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Melbourne, Australian German Climate & Energy Coll, Parkville, Vic 3010, Australia; 2.Univ Melbourne, Sch Earth Sci, Parkville, Vic 3010, Australia; 3.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; 4.BSC, Barcelona, Spain; 5.ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 6.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany; 7.Univ Minnesota, Inst Environm, St Paul, MN 55108 USA; 8.ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 9.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Seminar Stat, Zurich, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Vogel, Elisabeth,Donat, Markus G.,Alexander, Lisa, V,et al. The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(5). |
APA | Vogel, Elisabeth.,Donat, Markus G..,Alexander, Lisa, V.,Meinshausen, Malte.,Ray, Deepak K..,...&Frieler, Katja.(2019).The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(5). |
MLA | Vogel, Elisabeth,et al."The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.5(2019). |
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