GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0075.1
Representation of US Warm Temperature Extremes in Global Climate Model Ensembles
Hogan, Emily1; Nicholas, Robert E.2; Keller, Klaus2,3; Eilts, Stephanie1; Sriver, Ryan L.1
2019-05-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2019
卷号32期号:9页码:2591-2603
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Extreme temperature events can have considerable negative impacts on sectors such as health, agriculture, and transportation. Observational evidence indicates the severity and frequency of warm extremes are increasing over much of the United States, but there are sizeable challenges both in estimating extreme temperature changes and in quantifying the relevant associated uncertainties. This study provides a simple statistical framework using a block maxima approach to analyze the representation of warm temperature extremes in several recent global climate model ensembles. Uncertainties due to structural model differences, grid resolution, and internal variability are characterized and discussed. Results show that models and ensembles differ greatly in the representation of extreme temperature over the United States, and variability in tail events is dependent on time and anthropogenic warming, which can influence estimates of return periods and distribution parameter estimates using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. These effects can considerably influence the uncertainty of model hindcasts and projections of extremes. Several idealized regional applications are highlighted for evaluating ensemble skill and trends, based on quantile analysis and root-mean-square errors in the overall sample and the upper tail. The results are relevant to regional climate assessments that use global model outputs and that are sensitive to extreme warm temperature. Accompanying this manuscript is a simple toolkit using the R statistical programming language for characterizing extreme events in gridded datasets.


英文关键词Extreme events Climate change Climate variability Temperature Climate models Model output statistics
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000465136000005
WOS关键词INTERMEDIATE-COMPLEXITY MODEL ; MIDLATITUDE ATMOSPHERIC JET ; VALUE STATISTICS ; TOTAL-ENERGY ; CMIP5 ; PRECIPITATION ; FLUCTUATIONS ; IMPACTS ; INDEXES ; YIELDS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
被引频次:5[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/182992
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, Urbana, IL 61820 USA;
2.Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA;
3.Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA
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Hogan, Emily,Nicholas, Robert E.,Keller, Klaus,et al. Representation of US Warm Temperature Extremes in Global Climate Model Ensembles[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(9):2591-2603.
APA Hogan, Emily,Nicholas, Robert E.,Keller, Klaus,Eilts, Stephanie,&Sriver, Ryan L..(2019).Representation of US Warm Temperature Extremes in Global Climate Model Ensembles.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(9),2591-2603.
MLA Hogan, Emily,et al."Representation of US Warm Temperature Extremes in Global Climate Model Ensembles".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.9(2019):2591-2603.
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