GSTDTAP  > 地球科学
DOI10.1175/JAS-D-18-0301.1
Assessing the Influence of Microphysical and Environmental Parameter Perturbations on Orographic Precipitation
Morales, Annareli1,2; Posselt, Derek J.3; Morrison, Hugh2; He, Fei4
2019-05-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
ISSN0022-4928
EISSN1520-0469
出版年2019
卷号76期号:5页码:1373-1395
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Microphysical (MP) schemes contain parameters whose values can impact the amount and location of forecasted precipitation, and sensitivity is typically explored by perturbing one parameter at a time while holding the rest constant. Although much can be learned from these "one-at-a-time" studies, the results are limited as these methods do not allow for nonlinear interactions of multiple perturbed parameters. This study applies the Morris one-at-a-time (MOAT) method, a robust statistical tool allowing for simultaneous perturbation of numerous parameters, to explore orographic precipitation sensitivity to changes in microphysical and environmental parameters within an environment characteristic of an atmospheric river. Results show parameters associated with snow fall speed coefficient A(s) and density rho(s), ice-cloud water collection efficiency (ECI), rain accretion (WRA), relative humidity, zonal wind speed, and surface potential temperature cause the largest influence on simulated precipitation. MP and environmental parameter perturbations can cause precipitation changes of similar magnitude, but results vary by location on the mountain. Different environments are also tested, with A(s) being the most influential MP parameter regardless of environment. Fewer MP parameters influence precipitation in a faster-wind-speed environment, possibly due to the stronger dynamical forcing upwind and different wave dynamics downwind, compared to a slower-wind-speed environment. Finally, perturbing MP parameters within a single scheme can result in precipitation variations of similar magnitude compared to using entirely different microphysics schemes. MOAT results presented in this study have implications for Bayesian parameter estimation methods and stochastic parameterization within ensemble forecasting.


领域地球科学
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000467428300001
WOS关键词CHANGING AMBIENT CONDITIONS ; 2001 IMPROVE-2 EVENT ; SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS ; PART II ; ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS ; CLOUD MICROPHYSICS ; PACIFIC-OCEAN ; NEUTRAL FLOW ; MODEL ; MOIST
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183024
专题地球科学
作者单位1.Univ Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA;
2.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA;
3.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA USA;
4.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA
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Morales, Annareli,Posselt, Derek J.,Morrison, Hugh,et al. Assessing the Influence of Microphysical and Environmental Parameter Perturbations on Orographic Precipitation[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2019,76(5):1373-1395.
APA Morales, Annareli,Posselt, Derek J.,Morrison, Hugh,&He, Fei.(2019).Assessing the Influence of Microphysical and Environmental Parameter Perturbations on Orographic Precipitation.JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,76(5),1373-1395.
MLA Morales, Annareli,et al."Assessing the Influence of Microphysical and Environmental Parameter Perturbations on Orographic Precipitation".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 76.5(2019):1373-1395.
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