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DOI10.1007/s00382-018-4538-z
Effects of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on 2-m air temperature prediction over China during boreal winter in the S2S database
Zhou, Yang1; Yang, Ben2; Chen, Haishan1; Zhang, Yaocun2; Huang, Anning2; La, Mengke3
2019-06-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2019
卷号52期号:11页码:6671-6689
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
英文摘要

The reforecast of 11 models in the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project has been analyzed to investigate the effects of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the prediction skill of winter 2-m air temperature (T2M) over China. Most of the S2S models have useful prediction skills (correlation skill0.5) before pentads 3 and 4. ECMWF model can possess a good prediction skill for almost four pentads and perform the best among the 11 models. ECCC and ECMWF models have more reliable ensemble prediction and better ensemble strategies than the other models. All the models tend to have lower T2M prediction skill over the Tibetan Plateau than that over the other regions of China. Moreover, initial state and model resolution have important influences on S2S prediction skill. In most of the models at pentads 3 and 4, T2M prediction skill of forecast with MJO at initial time is significantly higher than that without over parts of China. However, the spatial distributions of the prediction skill differences due to MJO are not consistent among the 11 models. This indicates that there is an uncertainty of the effects of MJO on T2M prediction over China at pentads 3 and 4. Planetary-scale teleconnection pattern excited by MJO over the Northern Hemisphere is the possible reason for the effect of MJO on T2M prediction skill. Because most of the models can maintain this teleconnection pattern for 3-4 forecast pentads, MJO can affect the atmospheric circulation over China during this period, and improve the T2M prediction skill in the models. This finding suggests that the prediction of winter T2M over China initialized with MJO can be more skillful at pentads 3 and 4 than that without MJO in the initial conditions.


英文关键词2-m air temperature Sub-seasonal to seasonal Prediction skill Madden-Julian Oscillation
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000469016700021
WOS关键词INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY ; FORECAST MODEL ; MJO ; SKILL ; PREDICTABILITY ; RAINFALL ; IMPACT
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183476
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;
2.Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, CMA NJU Joint Lab Climate Predict Studies, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;
3.Nanjing Univ, Res Acad Environm Planning & Design Co Ltd, Nanjing 210093, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
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GB/T 7714
Zhou, Yang,Yang, Ben,Chen, Haishan,et al. Effects of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on 2-m air temperature prediction over China during boreal winter in the S2S database[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52(11):6671-6689.
APA Zhou, Yang,Yang, Ben,Chen, Haishan,Zhang, Yaocun,Huang, Anning,&La, Mengke.(2019).Effects of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on 2-m air temperature prediction over China during boreal winter in the S2S database.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52(11),6671-6689.
MLA Zhou, Yang,et al."Effects of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on 2-m air temperature prediction over China during boreal winter in the S2S database".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52.11(2019):6671-6689.
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