Estimated Contributions of Emissions Controls, Meteorological Factors, Population Growth, and Changes in Baseline Mortality to Reductions in Ambient PM2.5 and PM2.5-Related Mortality in China, 2013-2017

doi:10.1289/EHP4157

GSTDTAP > 资源环境科学

DOI	10.1289/EHP4157
	Estimated Contributions of Emissions Controls, Meteorological Factors, Population Growth, and Changes in Baseline Mortality to Reductions in Ambient PM2.5 and PM2.5-Related Mortality in China, 2013-2017
	Ding, Dian 1; Xing, Jia 1,2; Wang, Shuxiao 1,2; Liu, Kaiyun 1; Hao, Jiming 1
	2019-06-01
发表期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES
ISSN	0091-6765
EISSN	1552-9924
出版年	2019
卷号	127 期号:6
文章类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China
英文摘要	BACKGROUND: In 2013, China released the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (Action Plan), which set the roadmap for national air pollution control actions for the period of 2013 to 2017. A decrease in the fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <= 2.5 mu m (PM2.5) concentration may lead to a substantial benefit for human health. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to quantify the relative contributions four factors: emission reductions, changed meteorology, population growth, and a change in baseline mortality rates to the reduced PM2.5-related mortality (PM2.5-mortality) during the 2013-2017 period and evaluate the importance of emission controls for human health protection in China. METHODS: The integrated exposure-response function was adopted to estimate the chronic health effects of PM2.5. The annual PM2.5 concentrations were estimated from chemical transport model simulations combined with surface observations for 2013 and 2017. Relative contributions to PM2.5-mortality from emission reductions and the three factors were individually quantified through scenario analysis. RESULTS: The estimated total PM2.5-mortality in China was 1.389 million [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.005 million, 1.631 million) in 2013 but was substantially reduced to 1.102 million (95% CI: 0.755 million, 1.337 million) in 2017. Emission controls contributed 88.7% to this reduction in PM2.5-mortality, while changed meteorology, the change in baseline mortality rates, and population growth during 2013-2017 contributed 9.6, 3.8, and -2.2%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of the Action Plan has significantly reduced the PM2.5 concentration in regions of China where population density is high, dominating the decline in PM2.5-mortality during 2013-2017. However, the health burden of PM2.5 pollution in China is still extremely high compared with that in other developed countries. An aggressive air pollution control strategy should be implemented in densely populated areas to further reduce the health burden.
领域	资源环境
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000474528700005
WOS关键词	PARTICULATE AIR-POLLUTION ; CMAQ MODELING SYSTEM ; LONG-TERM EXPOSURE ; PREMATURE MORTALITY ; MATTER POLLUTION ; GLOBAL BURDEN ; HEALTH BURDEN ; BENMAP-CE ; PART I ; IMPACT
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Toxicology
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Toxicology
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183726
专题	资源环境科学
作者单位	1.Tsinghua Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Joint Lab Environm Simulat & Pollut Con, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.State Environm Protect Key Lab Sources & Control, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ding, Dian,Xing, Jia,Wang, Shuxiao,et al. Estimated Contributions of Emissions Controls, Meteorological Factors, Population Growth, and Changes in Baseline Mortality to Reductions in Ambient PM2.5 and PM2.5-Related Mortality in China, 2013-2017[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES,2019,127(6).
APA	Ding, Dian,Xing, Jia,Wang, Shuxiao,Liu, Kaiyun,&Hao, Jiming.(2019).Estimated Contributions of Emissions Controls, Meteorological Factors, Population Growth, and Changes in Baseline Mortality to Reductions in Ambient PM2.5 and PM2.5-Related Mortality in China, 2013-2017.ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES,127(6).
MLA	Ding, Dian,et al."Estimated Contributions of Emissions Controls, Meteorological Factors, Population Growth, and Changes in Baseline Mortality to Reductions in Ambient PM2.5 and PM2.5-Related Mortality in China, 2013-2017".ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 127.6(2019).