GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1111/gcb.14593
Extreme heterogeneity of population response to climatic variation and the limits of prediction
Nice, Chris C.1; Forister, Matthew L.2; Harrison, Joshua G.3; Gompert, Zachariah4; Fordyce, James A.5; Thorne, James H.6; Waetjen, David P.6; Shapiro, Arthur M.7
2019-06-01
发表期刊GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
ISSN1354-1013
EISSN1365-2486
出版年2019
卷号25期号:6页码:2127-2136
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Certain general facets of biotic response to climate change, such as shifts in phenology and geographic distribution, are well characterized; however, it is not clear whether the observed similarity of responses across taxa will extend to variation in other population-level processes. We examined population response to climatic variation using long-term incidence data (collected over 42 years) encompassing 149 butterfly species and considerable habitat diversity (10 sites along an elevational gradient from sea level to over 2,700 m in California). Population responses were characterized by extreme heterogeneity that was not attributable to differences in species composition among sites. These results indicate that habitat heterogeneity might be a buffer against climate change and highlight important questions about mechanisms maintaining interpopulation differences in responses to weather. Despite overall heterogeneity of response, population dynamics were accurately predicted by our model for many species at each site. However, the overall correlation between observed and predicted incidence in a cross validation analysis was moderate (Pearson's r = 0.23, SE 0.01), and 97% of observed data fell within the predicted 95% credible intervals. Prediction was most successful for more abundant species as well as for sites with lower annual turnover. Population-level heterogeneity in response to climate variation and the limits of our predictive power highlight the challenges for a future of increasing climatic variability.


英文关键词Bayesian hierarchical model climate change long-term data monitoring weather
领域气候变化 ; 资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000467441900020
WOS关键词PHENOLOGICAL RESPONSE ; BUTTERFLIES ; DIVERSITY ; DECLINES ; WEATHER ; TEMPERATURE ; COMMUNITY ; INCREASE ; SHIFTS
WOS类目Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183825
专题气候变化
资源环境科学
作者单位1.Texas State Univ, Populat & Conservat Biol Program, Dept Biol, San Marcos, TX USA;
2.Univ Nevada, Dept Biol, Program Ecol Evolut & Conservat Biol, Reno, NV 89557 USA;
3.Univ Wyoming, Bot Dept, Laramie, WY 82071 USA;
4.Utah State Univ, Dept Biol, Logan, UT 84322 USA;
5.Univ Tennessee, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Knoxville, TN USA;
6.Univ Calif Davis, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Davis, CA 95616 USA;
7.Univ Calif Davis, Ctr Populat Biol, Davis, CA 95616 USA
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GB/T 7714
Nice, Chris C.,Forister, Matthew L.,Harrison, Joshua G.,et al. Extreme heterogeneity of population response to climatic variation and the limits of prediction[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2019,25(6):2127-2136.
APA Nice, Chris C..,Forister, Matthew L..,Harrison, Joshua G..,Gompert, Zachariah.,Fordyce, James A..,...&Shapiro, Arthur M..(2019).Extreme heterogeneity of population response to climatic variation and the limits of prediction.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,25(6),2127-2136.
MLA Nice, Chris C.,et al."Extreme heterogeneity of population response to climatic variation and the limits of prediction".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 25.6(2019):2127-2136.
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