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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0052.1 |
A Global Climatology of Extratropical Transition. Part II: Statistical Performance of the Cyclone Phase Space | |
Bieli, Melanie1; Camargo, Suzana J.2; Sobel, Adam H.2,3; Evans, Jenni L.4; Hall, Timothy5 | |
2019-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:12页码:3583-3597 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | This study analyzes the differences between an objective, automated identification of tropical cyclones (TCs) that undergo extratropical transition (ET), and the designation of ET determined subjectively by human forecasters in best track data in all basins globally. The objective identification of ET is based on the cyclone phase space (CPS), calculated from the Japanese 55-yr Reanalysis (JRA-55) or the ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim). The resulting classification into ET storms and non-ET storms underlies the global climatology of ET presented in Part I of this study. Here, the authors investigate how well the CPS classifications agree with those in the best track records calculated from JRA-55 or from ERA-Interim data. According to F1 scores and Matthews correlation coefficients (MCCs), the classification of ET storms in the CPS agrees best with the best track classification in the western North Pacific (MCC > 0.7) and the North Atlantic (MCC > 0.5). In other basins, the correlation between the CPS classification and the best track classification is only slightly higher than that of a random classification. The JRA-55 classification achieves higher performance scores than does the ERA-Interim classification, and the differences are statistically significant in all basins. The lower performance of ERA-Interim is mainly due to a higher false alarm rate, particularly in the eastern North Pacific. Overall, the results show that while the CPS-based classifications are good enough to be useful for many purposes, there is almost certainly room for improvement-in the representation of the storms in reanalyses, in our objective metrics of ET, and in our scientific understanding of the ET process. |
英文关键词 | Extratropical cyclones Tropical cyclones Classification |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000468810400005 |
WOS关键词 | TROPICAL CYCLONES ; LIFE-CYCLE ; REANALYSIS ; EVOLUTION ; WIND |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183860 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY 10027 USA; 2.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY USA; 3.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, Palisades, NY USA; 4.Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 5.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bieli, Melanie,Camargo, Suzana J.,Sobel, Adam H.,et al. A Global Climatology of Extratropical Transition. Part II: Statistical Performance of the Cyclone Phase Space[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(12):3583-3597. |
APA | Bieli, Melanie,Camargo, Suzana J.,Sobel, Adam H.,Evans, Jenni L.,&Hall, Timothy.(2019).A Global Climatology of Extratropical Transition. Part II: Statistical Performance of the Cyclone Phase Space.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(12),3583-3597. |
MLA | Bieli, Melanie,et al."A Global Climatology of Extratropical Transition. Part II: Statistical Performance of the Cyclone Phase Space".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.12(2019):3583-3597. |
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