Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-19-8163-2019 |
Contrail cirrus radiative forcing for future air traffic | |
Bock, Lisa; Burkhardt, Ulrike | |
2019-06-27 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
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ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 19期号:12页码:8163-8174 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | The climate impact of air traffic is to a large degree caused by changes in cirrus cloudiness resulting from the formation of contrails. Contrail cirrus radiative forcing is expected to increase significantly over time due to the large projected increases in air traffic. We use ECHAM5-CCMod, an atmospheric climate model with an online contrail cirrus parameterization including a microphysical two-moment scheme, to investigate the climate impact of contrail cirrus for the year 2050. We take into account the predicted increase in air traffic volume, changes in propulsion efficiency and emissions, in particular soot emissions, and the modification of the contrail cirrus climate impact due to anthropogenic climate change. Global contrail cirrus radiative forcing increases by a factor of 3 from 2006 to 2050, reaching 160 or even 180 mW m(-2), which is the result of the increase in air traffic volume and a slight shift in air traffic towards higher altitudes. Large increases in contrail cirrus radiative forcing are expected over all of the main air traffic areas, but relative increases are largest over main air traffic areas over eastern Asia. The projected upward shift in air traffic attenuates contrail cirrus radiative forcing increases in the midlatitudes but reinforces it in the tropical areas. Climate change has an insignificant impact on global contrail cirrus radiative forcing, while regional changes are significant. Of the emission reductions it is the soot number emission reductions by 50 % that lead to a significant decrease in contrail cirrus optical depth and coverage, leading to a decrease in radiative forcing by approximately 15 %. The strong increase in contrail cirrus radiative forcing due to the projected increase in air traffic volume cannot be compensated for by the decrease in initial ice crystal numbers due to reduced soot emissions and improvements in propulsion efficiency. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000473067200001 |
WOS关键词 | ICE SUPERSATURATION ; OPTICAL DEPTH ; CLIMATE ; VARIABILITY ; EMISSIONS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184150 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | Inst Phys Atmosphare, Deutsch Zentrum Luft & Raumfahrt DLR, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bock, Lisa,Burkhardt, Ulrike. Contrail cirrus radiative forcing for future air traffic[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2019,19(12):8163-8174. |
APA | Bock, Lisa,&Burkhardt, Ulrike.(2019).Contrail cirrus radiative forcing for future air traffic.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,19(12),8163-8174. |
MLA | Bock, Lisa,et al."Contrail cirrus radiative forcing for future air traffic".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 19.12(2019):8163-8174. |
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