Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019JD030444 |
August-September Temperature Variability on the Tibetan Plateau: Past, Present, and Future | |
Duan, Jianping1; Ma, Zhuguo1,2; Li, Lun3; Zheng, Ziyan1 | |
2019-06-27 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
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ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 124期号:12页码:6057-6068 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | To assess the recent warming on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), some tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions have been performed. However, most of the previous studies focused on the local or regional scale. In this study, we analyzed the recent variability of August-September temperature using observations from 79 TP meteorological stations, and the observed records were extended back to 1,572 based on a tree-ring maximum density network comprising 17 sites. Moreover, the future August-September temperature scenarios on the TP are also presented using the ensemble mean of five regional climate models. The tree-ring maximum late-wood density network shows good capacity to reconstruct the August-September temperature variability at the spatial scale of the whole TP (i.e., 79-station average; r(1951-2014) = 0.80, P < 0.01). The reconstruction suggests that the instrumental epoch is the warmest interval of August-September over the past four and a half centuries on the TP, and the decadal-scale August-September warming since the 1960s is unprecedented. The ensemble simulation of five regional climate models indicates that persistent August-September warming will occur on the TP in the future. The magnitude of August-September warming is approximately 1.56 0.30 degrees C and 3.02 0.29 degrees C over the period 2006-2049 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and P8.5 scenarios, respectively. These results imply a further ecological and environmental change on the TP linked to the persistent warming in the future. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000477800000009 |
WOS关键词 | REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS ; TREE-RING DENSITY ; MAXIMUM DENSITY ; RECONSTRUCTION ; MOUNTAIN ; EXTREMES ; RIVER |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184162 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Temperate East Asia, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth & Planetary Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Duan, Jianping,Ma, Zhuguo,Li, Lun,et al. August-September Temperature Variability on the Tibetan Plateau: Past, Present, and Future[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2019,124(12):6057-6068. |
APA | Duan, Jianping,Ma, Zhuguo,Li, Lun,&Zheng, Ziyan.(2019).August-September Temperature Variability on the Tibetan Plateau: Past, Present, and Future.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,124(12),6057-6068. |
MLA | Duan, Jianping,et al."August-September Temperature Variability on the Tibetan Plateau: Past, Present, and Future".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 124.12(2019):6057-6068. |
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