Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL082900 |
Historical Variability of Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Counts Since 1855 | |
Magee, A. D.1; Verdon-Kidd, D. C.2 | |
2019-06-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:12页码:6936-6945 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | Tropical cyclones (TCs) represent a significant threat to people and places of the southwest Pacific (0 degrees-35 degrees S, 135 degrees E-120 degrees W). TC modeling is hindered by exceptionally short TC records (typically from 1970/1982 to present) because the brevity of TC data does not allow us to appropriately quantify TC-related risk and/or identify long-term trends/variability. Therefore, in this paper, we derive a series of statistical hindcast models to reconstruct TC counts in the western (135 degrees E-160 degrees E) and eastern southwest Pacific (160 degrees E-120 degrees W) regions to 1855. Reanalysis data representing Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature variability and genesis parameters required for tropical cyclogenesis were identified and trained on post-1970 TC observations and applied to the pre-1970 period. By hindcasting up to an additional 115 TC seasons, using four separate hindcasts, this study offers a unique perspective on historical TC variability and reiterates the need to place the recent downward trend in TC counts within the context of long-term variability. |
英文关键词 | tropical cyclones southwest Pacific hindcast tropical variability TCs |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000477616300086 |
WOS关键词 | POISSON REGRESSION-MODEL ; AUSTRALIAN REGION ; ATLANTIC HURRICANES ; CYCLOGENESIS ; CLIMATE ; TEMPERATURE ; REANALYSIS ; INTENSITY ; ENSO |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184285 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Newcastle, CWCL, Fac Sci, Callaghan, NSW, Australia; 2.Univ Newcastle, Fac Sci, Callaghan, NSW, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Magee, A. D.,Verdon-Kidd, D. C.. Historical Variability of Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Counts Since 1855[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(12):6936-6945. |
APA | Magee, A. D.,&Verdon-Kidd, D. C..(2019).Historical Variability of Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Counts Since 1855.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(12),6936-6945. |
MLA | Magee, A. D.,et al."Historical Variability of Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Counts Since 1855".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.12(2019):6936-6945. |
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