GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1029/2019GL082900
Historical Variability of Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Counts Since 1855
Magee, A. D.1; Verdon-Kidd, D. C.2
2019-06-28
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2019
卷号46期号:12页码:6936-6945
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia
英文摘要

Tropical cyclones (TCs) represent a significant threat to people and places of the southwest Pacific (0 degrees-35 degrees S, 135 degrees E-120 degrees W). TC modeling is hindered by exceptionally short TC records (typically from 1970/1982 to present) because the brevity of TC data does not allow us to appropriately quantify TC-related risk and/or identify long-term trends/variability. Therefore, in this paper, we derive a series of statistical hindcast models to reconstruct TC counts in the western (135 degrees E-160 degrees E) and eastern southwest Pacific (160 degrees E-120 degrees W) regions to 1855. Reanalysis data representing Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature variability and genesis parameters required for tropical cyclogenesis were identified and trained on post-1970 TC observations and applied to the pre-1970 period. By hindcasting up to an additional 115 TC seasons, using four separate hindcasts, this study offers a unique perspective on historical TC variability and reiterates the need to place the recent downward trend in TC counts within the context of long-term variability.


英文关键词tropical cyclones southwest Pacific hindcast tropical variability TCs
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000477616300086
WOS关键词POISSON REGRESSION-MODEL ; AUSTRALIAN REGION ; ATLANTIC HURRICANES ; CYCLOGENESIS ; CLIMATE ; TEMPERATURE ; REANALYSIS ; INTENSITY ; ENSO
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
引用统计
被引频次:14[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184285
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Newcastle, CWCL, Fac Sci, Callaghan, NSW, Australia;
2.Univ Newcastle, Fac Sci, Callaghan, NSW, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Magee, A. D.,Verdon-Kidd, D. C.. Historical Variability of Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Counts Since 1855[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(12):6936-6945.
APA Magee, A. D.,&Verdon-Kidd, D. C..(2019).Historical Variability of Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Counts Since 1855.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(12),6936-6945.
MLA Magee, A. D.,et al."Historical Variability of Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Counts Since 1855".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.12(2019):6936-6945.
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