Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-019-02430-9 |
Towards a comprehensive characterization of evidence in synthesis assessments: the climate change impacts on the Brazilian water resources | |
de Amorim, Pablo Borges1; Chaffe, Pedro B.2 | |
2019-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 155期号:1页码:37-57 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Brazil |
英文摘要 | The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has put a lot of efforts to describe uncertainties and to judge the confidence level of its major conclusions. Despite a guidance to communicate uncertainty, the assignment of confidence is not sufficiently clear and, thus, hard to be reproduced by the extern community. By conducting a synthesis assessment about the impacts of climate change on the Brazilian water resources, we identified an opportunity to illustrate the characterization of evidence as adopted in IPCC reports. We propose a method to describe the evidence from model outputs wherein the quality and amount of studies, as well as the consistency among their conclusions, are subject of a transparent rating procedure. In summary, the more comprehensive the study in sampling uncertainties, the higher its quality. Likewise, the amount and consistency among conclusions is assigned in a systematic way. The method is applied for synthesizing a collection of 42 peer-reviewed articles. It reveals important aspects about the evidence of the potential impacts of climate change in the Brazilian water resources, such as changes into a drier hydrological regime. However, the use of multi-model ensemble, the evaluation of models, and the observational data is limited. The proposed method enables consistent communication of the degree of evidence in a transparent, traceable, and comprehensive fashion. The method can be used as a tool to support experts on their judgment. The approach is reproducible and can guide synthesis work not only in Brazil but anywhere else. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000473162200003 |
WOS关键词 | BIAS CORRECTION ; LAND-COVER ; UNCERTAINTIES ; SCENARIOS ; PROJECTIONS ; ENSEMBLE ; RAINFALL ; BASIN |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184422 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Fed Santa Catarina, Grad Program Environm Engn, BR-88040900 Florianopolis, SC, Brazil; 2.Univ Fed Santa Catarina, Dept Sanit & Environm Engn, BR-88040900 Florianopolis, SC, Brazil |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | de Amorim, Pablo Borges,Chaffe, Pedro B.. Towards a comprehensive characterization of evidence in synthesis assessments: the climate change impacts on the Brazilian water resources[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019,155(1):37-57. |
APA | de Amorim, Pablo Borges,&Chaffe, Pedro B..(2019).Towards a comprehensive characterization of evidence in synthesis assessments: the climate change impacts on the Brazilian water resources.CLIMATIC CHANGE,155(1),37-57. |
MLA | de Amorim, Pablo Borges,et al."Towards a comprehensive characterization of evidence in synthesis assessments: the climate change impacts on the Brazilian water resources".CLIMATIC CHANGE 155.1(2019):37-57. |
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