资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Drought being a complex natural hazard is challenging to monitor. Although standardized procedures for drought characterization are commonly used, the uncertainty about accurate drought characterization under various procedures always exists. Therefore, for effective drought mitigation policies, it is necessary to compare the performance of new and the existing drought procedures. In this study, we proposed a new procedure-The Drought Intensity Pattern Determinate (DIPD) to examine and compare the spatial-temporal intensities of various drought episodes based on Standardized Drought Indices (SDI). The DIPD framework provides a new tool-The Drought Concentration Index (DCI) to understand the annual intensity of drought classes by alluding the observed frequencies of drought episodes. At the preliminary level of assessment, DIPD is employed at 52 meteorological stations of Pakistan, and compared three commonly used standardized drought indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Precipitation Temperature Index (SPTI). Exploratory analysis shows a mixed picture as all the drought indices behaving similar for some patterns of drought classes, while some classes show significant discrepancies. In addition, we assessed and compared the spatial distributions using spatial Poisson lognormal model by assuming SDI as a non-Gaussian process for individual total classes of observed DCI. Results show that the proposed method has ability to incorporate the inner variability in patterns of drought classes. In summary, the DIPD provided a new regional based comparative framework, which accounts the all possible episodes of drought classes and effect of inner discrepancies among quantitative values of SDI.